Submitted as: model evaluation paper 22 Nov 2021

Submitted as: model evaluation paper | 22 Nov 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

Impact of changes in climate and CO2 on the carbon-sequestration potential of vegetation under limited water availability using SEIB-DGVM version 3.02

Shanlin Tong1,2,3, Weiguang Wang2,3, Jie Chen1, Chong-Yu Xu4, Hisashi Sato5, and Guoqing Wang6 Shanlin Tong et al.
  • 1State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, Peoples R China
  • 2State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, Peoples R China
  • 3College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, Peoples R China
  • 4Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, N-0316, Norway
  • 5Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
  • 6Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029, Peoples R China

Abstract. Documenting year-to-year variations in carbon-sequestration potential in terrestrial ecosystems is crucial for the determination of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, the magnitude, pattern and inner biomass partitioning of carbon-sequestration potential, and the effect of the changes in climate and CO2 on inner carbon stocks, remain poorly quantified. Herein, we use a spatially explicit individual based-dynamic global vegetation model to investigate the influences of the changes in climate and CO2 on the enhanced carbon-sequestration potential of vegetation. The modelling included a series of factorial simulations using the CRU dataset from 1916 to 2015. The results show that CO2 predominantly leads to a persistent and widespread increase in above-ground vegetation biomass carbon-stocks (AVBC) and below-ground vegetation biomass carbon-stocks (BVBC). Climate change appears to play a secondary role in carbon-sequestration potential. Importantly, with the mitigation of water stress, the magnitude of the above- and below-ground responses in vegetation carbon-stocks gradually increases, and the ratio between AVBC and BVBC increases to capture CO2 and sunlight. Changes in the pattern of vegetation carbon storage was linked to regional limitations in water, which directly weakens and indirectly regulates the response of potential vegetation carbon-stocks to a changing environment. Our findings differ from previous modelling evaluations of vegetation that ignored inner carbon dynamics and demonstrates that the long-term trend in increased vegetation biomass carbon-stocks is driven by CO2 fertilization and temperature effects that are controlled by water limitations.

Shanlin Tong et al.

Status: open (until 17 Jan 2022)

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Shanlin Tong et al.

Shanlin Tong et al.


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Short summary
Plant carbon-sequestration potential is central to moderate atmospheric CO2 concentrations buildup and mitigate climate change. There is an ongoing debate about the main driver of carbon storage. To reconcile this discrepancy, we use SEIB-DGVM to investigate the trend and response mechanism of carbon-stock fractions among water limitation regions. Results show the impact of CO2 and temperature on carbon-stock depends on water limitation, offering a new perspective on carbon-water coupling.