Assessment of stochastic weather forecast of precipitation near European cities, based on analogs of circulation
- 1ARIA Technologies, 8 Rue de la Ferme, 92100 Boulogne-Billancourt, France
- 2Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL ’&’ Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- 1ARIA Technologies, 8 Rue de la Ferme, 92100 Boulogne-Billancourt, France
- 2Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL ’&’ Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Abstract. In this study, we aim to assess the skill of a stochastic weather generator (SWG) to forecast precipitation in several cities of Western Europe. The SWG is based on random sampling of analogs of the geopotential height at 500 hPa. The SWG is evaluated for two reanalyses (NCEP and ERA5). We simulate 100-member ensemble forecasts on a daily time increment. We evaluate the performance of SWG with forecast skill scores and we compare it to ECMWF forecasts. Results show significant positive skill scores (continuous rank probability skill score and correlation) for lead times of 5 and 10 days for different areas in Europe.
We found that the low predictability of our model is related to specific weather regimes, depending on the European region. Comparing SWG forecasts to ECMWF forecasts, we found that the SWG shows a good performance for 5 days. This performance varies from one region to another. This paper is a proof of concept for a stochastic regional ensemble precipitation forecast. Its parameters (e.g. region for analogs) must be tuned for each region in order to optimize its performance.
Meriem Krouma et al.
Status: final response (author comments only)
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RC1: 'Comment on gmd-2021-36', Anonymous Referee #1, 20 Apr 2021
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/gmd-2021-36/gmd-2021-36-RC1-supplement.pdf
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Meriem Krouma, 31 Jul 2021
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RC2: 'Comment on gmd-2021-36', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 Jul 2021
Review of the manuscript "Assessment of stochastic weather forecast of precipitation near European cities, based on analogs of circulation" by M. Krouma et al.
This is a very interesting manuscript, owning a good potential to become a high impact paper with positive repercussions on different societal sectors. A stochastic rain generator is produced exploiting the relationship between Z500 and precipitation in different European cities. The work is worth publication, but it needs a substantial revision about three distinct points:1 - an improved description of the methodology is needed, in order to better understand the workflow and some of the choices that have been employed.
2 - the use of the prolonged ERA5 dataset (since 1950) is urged, in order to understand whether the differences in skill with NCEP are actually due to the length of the analog database, or to the database itself.
3 - a thorough and comprehensive revision of the English language is needed. Many subject-predicate inconsistencies, missing s', wrong sentence structures make some parts of the manuscript very hard to read.Specific comments are stored in the attached files. In bold font, those that pertain to the above-mentioned major observations.
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Meriem Krouma, 31 Jul 2021
Meriem Krouma et al.
Data sets
Analogs of circulation Meriem Krouma http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4524562
Model code and software
Code for forecast Meriem Krouma http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4524562
Meriem Krouma et al.
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