Submitted as: model evaluation paper 24 Mar 2021
Submitted as: model evaluation paper | 24 Mar 2021
Assessment of stochastic weather forecast of precipitation near European cities, based on analogs of circulation
- 1ARIA Technologies, 8 Rue de la Ferme, 92100 Boulogne-Billancourt, France
- 2Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL ’&’ Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- 1ARIA Technologies, 8 Rue de la Ferme, 92100 Boulogne-Billancourt, France
- 2Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL ’&’ Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Abstract. In this study, we aim to assess the skill of a stochastic weather generator (SWG) to forecast precipitation in several cities of Western Europe. The SWG is based on random sampling of analogs of the geopotential height at 500 hPa. The SWG is evaluated for two reanalyses (NCEP and ERA5). We simulate 100-member ensemble forecasts on a daily time increment. We evaluate the performance of SWG with forecast skill scores and we compare it to ECMWF forecasts. Results show significant positive skill scores (continuous rank probability skill score and correlation) for lead times of 5 and 10 days for different areas in Europe.
We found that the low predictability of our model is related to specific weather regimes, depending on the European region. Comparing SWG forecasts to ECMWF forecasts, we found that the SWG shows a good performance for 5 days. This performance varies from one region to another. This paper is a proof of concept for a stochastic regional ensemble precipitation forecast. Its parameters (e.g. region for analogs) must be tuned for each region in order to optimize its performance.
Meriem Krouma et al.
Status: open (until 19 May 2021)
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RC1: 'Comment on gmd-2021-36', Anonymous Referee #1, 20 Apr 2021
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The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/gmd-2021-36/gmd-2021-36-RC1-supplement.pdf
Meriem Krouma et al.
Data sets
Analogs of circulation Meriem Krouma http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4524562
Model code and software
Code for forecast Meriem Krouma http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4524562
Meriem Krouma et al.
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