Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-278
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-278

Submitted as: model evaluation paper 28 Sep 2021

Submitted as: model evaluation paper | 28 Sep 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

EuLerian Identification of Ascending air Streams (ELIAS 2.0) in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Models. Part II: Model application to different data sets

Julian Francesco Quinting, Christian Michael Grams, Annika Oertel, and Moritz Pickl Julian Francesco Quinting et al.
  • Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany

Abstract. Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) affect the atmospheric dynamics in midlatitudes and are highly relevant for total and extreme precipitation in many parts of the extratropics. Thus, these air streams and their effect on midlatitude weather should be well represented in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models. This study applies newly developed convolutional neural network (CNN) models which allow the identification of footprints of WCB inflow, ascent, and outflow from a limited number of predictor fields at comparably low spatio-temporal resolution. The goal of the study is to demonstrate the versatile applicability of the CNN models to different data sets and that their application yields qualitatively and quantitatively similar results as their trajectory-based counterpart which is most frequently used to objectively identify WCBs but requires data at higher spatio-temporal resolution which is often not available and is computationally more expensive. First, an application to reanalyses reveals that the well-known relationship between WCB ascent and extratropical cyclones as well as between WCB outflow and blocking anticyclones is also found for WCB footprints identified with the CNN models. Second, the application to Japanese 55-year reanalyses shows how the CNN models may be used to identify erroneous predictor fields that deteriorate the models' reliability. Third, a verification of WCBs in operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecasts for three Northern Hemisphere winters reveals systematic biases over the North Atlantic with both the trajectory-based approach and the CNN models. The ensemble forecasts' skill tends to be lower when being evaluated with the trajectory approach due to the fine-scale structure of WCB footprints in comparison to the rather smooth CNN-based WCB footprints. A final example demonstrates the applicability of the CNN models to a convection permitting simulation with the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) NWP model. Our study illustrates that deep learning methods can be used efficiently to support process-oriented understanding of forecast error and model biases, and opens numerous directions for future research.

Julian Francesco Quinting et al.

Status: open (until 23 Nov 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Julian Francesco Quinting et al.

Model code and software

EuLerian Identification of ascending Air Streams (ELIAS 2.0) in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Models Julian F. Quinting https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5154980

Julian Francesco Quinting et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 222 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
190 30 2 222 3 0
  • HTML: 190
  • PDF: 30
  • XML: 2
  • Total: 222
  • BibTeX: 3
  • EndNote: 0
Views and downloads (calculated since 28 Sep 2021)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 28 Sep 2021)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 216 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 216 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 22 Oct 2021
Download
Short summary
This study applies novel artificial intelligence-based models which allow the identification of one specific weather system which affects the midlatitude circulation. We show that the models yield similar results as their trajectory-based counterpart which requires data at higher spatio-temporal resolution and is computationally more expensive. Overall, we aim to show how deep learning methods can be used efficiently to support process-understanding of biases in weather prediction models.