Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-169
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-169

Submitted as: model description paper 13 Jul 2021

Submitted as: model description paper | 13 Jul 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

C-LLAMA v1.0: traceable model for food, agriculture and land-use

Thomas S. Ball1, Naomi E. Vaughan1,2, Thomas W. Powell3, Andrew Lovett1, and Timothy M. Lenton3 Thomas S. Ball et al.
  • 1School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
  • 2Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
  • 3Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4PY, UK

Abstract. We present C-LLAMA 1.0 (Country-level Land Availability Model for Agriculture), a statistical-empirical model of the global food and agriculture system. Based on the FALAFEL (Flux Assessment of Linked Agricultural Food production, Energy potentials & Land-use change) model, C-LLAMA aims to address the need for an open and transparent approach to modelling the sensitivity of future agricultural land-use to drivers such as diet, crop yields and food-system efficiency. C-LLAMA uses publicly available FAOSTAT data to make linear projections of diet, food system and agricultural efficiencies, and land-use at a national level, aiming to capture aspects of food systems in both developing and developed nations. In this paper we describe the structure and processes within the model and perform sensitivity analyses of key components.

Thomas S. Ball et al.

Status: open (until 07 Sep 2021)

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Thomas S. Ball et al.

Model code and software

C-LLAMA1.0 Thomas Ball https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5083001

Thomas S. Ball et al.

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Short summary
We present C-LLAMA 1.0 (Country-Level Land Availability Model for Agriculture), a simple model of the global food and agriculture system. C-LLAMA uses publicly available dataset to make projections of diet, food demand, food production and land-use. Operating at the national level, each country acts as a 'box' with inputs and outputs. The model is designed to be simple to understand and modify, making it well-placed to explore the food system as a driver of land-use in future scenarios.