Submitted as: model description paper 31 May 2021

Submitted as: model description paper | 31 May 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

ANEMI_Yangtze v1.0: An Integrated Assessment Model of the Yangtze Economic Belt - Model Description

Haiyan Jiang1,2, Slobodan P. Simonovic1, and Zhongbo Yu2,3,4 Haiyan Jiang et al.
  • 1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada
  • 2State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China
  • 3Joint International Research Laboratory of Global Change and Water Cycle, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China
  • 4Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China

Abstract. Yangtze Economic Belt is one of the most dynamic regions in China in terms of population growth, economic progress, industrialization, and urbanization. It faces many resource constraints (food, energy) and environmental challenges (pollution, biodiversity loss) under rapid population growth and economic development. Interactions between human and natural systems are at the heart of the challenges facing the sustainable development of the Yangtze Economic Belt. Understanding these interactions poses challenges because human and natural systems evolve in response to a wide range of influences. Accounting for these complex dynamics requires a system tool that can represent the fundamental drivers of change and responses of the individual system as well as how different systems interact and co-evolve. By adopting the system thinking and the methodology of system dynamics simulation, an integrated assessment model for the Yangtze Economic Belt, named ANEMI_Yangtze, is developed based on the third version of the global integrated assessment model, ANEMI. Nine sectors of population, economy, land, food, energy, water, carbon, nutrients, and fish are currently included in ANEMI_Yangtze. This paper identifies the opportunities and challenges facing the Yangtze Economic Belt and presents the ANEMI_Yangtze model structure. It also includes: (i) the identification of the cross-sectoral interactions and feedbacks involved in shaping Yangtze Economic Belt’s system behaviour over time; (ii) the identification of the feedbacks within each sector that drive the state variables in that sector; and (iii) the explanation of the theoretical and mathematical basis for those feedbacks. ANEMI_Yangtze was developed and calibrated sector by sector before coupling them together into complete ANEMI_Yangtze model. After the validation and robustness test, the ANEMI_Yangtze model can be used to support decision making, policy assessment, and scenario development. This study aims to improve the understanding of the complex interactions among human and natural systems in the Yangtze Economic Belt to provide foundation for science-based policies for the sustainable development of the economic belt.

Haiyan Jiang et al.

Status: open (until 26 Jul 2021)

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Haiyan Jiang et al.

Haiyan Jiang et al.


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Short summary
To address the specific challenges facing Yangtze Economic Belt’s sustainable development, ANEMI_Yangtze, which consists of the Population, Economy, Land, Food, Energy, Water, Carbon, Nutrients, and Fish Sectors was developed based on the feedback-based integrated global assessment model ANEMI. This paper focuses on illustrating the theoretical basis and analyzing the nonlinearity, delays, and feedbacks in determining the long-term system behaviour in the Yangtze Economic Belt.