Submitted as: model experiment description paper 17 Feb 2021

Submitted as: model experiment description paper | 17 Feb 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

The SMHI Large Ensemble (SMHI-LENS) with EC-Earth3

Klaus Wyser1, Torben Koenigk1,2, Uwe Fladrich1, Ramon Fuentes-Franco1, Mehdi Pasha Karami1, and Tim Kruschke1 Klaus Wyser et al.
  • 1Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
  • 2Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract. The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute used the global climate model EC-Earth3 to perform a large ensemble of simulations (SMHI-LENS). It consists of 50 members, covers the period 1970 to 2100 and comprises the SSP1-1.9, SSP3-3.4, SSP5-3.4-OS and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Thus, it is currently the only large ensemble that allows for analyzing the effect of delayed mitigation actions versus no mitigation efforts and versus earlier efforts leading to similar radiative forcing at year 2100. We describe the set-up of the SMHI-LENS in detail and provide first examples for its application. The ensemble mean future changes of key variables in atmosphere and ocean are analyzed and compared against the variability across the ensemble members. In agreement with other large ensemble simulations, we find that the future changes in the near surface temperature are more robust than those for precipitation or sea level pressure. As an example for a possible application of the SMHI-LENS, we analyse the probability of exceeding specific global surface warming levels in the different scenarios. None of the scenarios is able to keep global warming in the 21st century below 1.5 °C. In SSP1-1.9 there is a probability of approximately 70 % to stay below 2 °C warming while all other SSPs exceed this target in every single member of SMHI-LENS during the course of the century. We also investigate the point in time when the SSP5-8.5 and SSP5-3.4 ensembles separate, i.e. when their differences become significant, and likewise when the SSP5-3.4-OS and SSP4-3.4 ensembles become similar. Last, we show that the time of emergence of a separation between different scenarios can vary by several decades when reducing the ensemble size to 10 members.

Klaus Wyser et al.

Status: open (until 14 Apr 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on gmd-2020-428', John Fyfe, 18 Feb 2021 reply
    • CC2: 'Reply on CC1', Klaus Wyser, 19 Feb 2021 reply
      • CC3: 'Reply on CC2', John Fyfe, 19 Feb 2021 reply

Klaus Wyser et al.

Klaus Wyser et al.


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Short summary
This paper describes the large ensemble done by SMHI with the EC-Earth3 climate model. The ensemble comprises 50 realisations of the historical experiment and four different future projections for CMIP6. We describe the creation of the initial states for the large ensemble and the reduced set of output variables. A first look at the results illustrates the changes in the climate during this century and puts them in relation to the uncertainty from the model's internal variability.