Submitted as: development and technical paper 30 Nov 2020
Submitted as: development and technical paper | 30 Nov 2020
An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3
- 1Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
- 2School of Technology, Environments and Design, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
- 3Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, Australia
- 1Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
- 2School of Technology, Environments and Design, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
- 3Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, Australia
Abstract. Physical processes within geoscientific models are sometimes described by simplified schemes known as parameterisations. The values of the parameters within these schemes can be poorly constrained by theory or observation. Uncertainty in the parameter values translates into uncertainty in the outputs of the models. Proper quantification of the uncertainty in model predictions therefore requires a systematic approach for sampling parameter space. In this study, we develop a simple and efficient approach to identify regions of multi-dimensional parameter space that are consistent with observations. Using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model to simulate the present-day state of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, we find that co-dependencies between parameters preclude the identification of a single optimal set of parameter values. Approaches such as large ensemble modelling are therefore required in order to generate model predictions that incorporate proper quantification of the uncertainty arising from the parameterisation of physical processes.
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Steven J. Phipps et al.


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RC1: 'Review of "An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3"', Anonymous Referee #1, 26 Dec 2020
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AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Steven Phipps, 05 Mar 2021
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AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Steven Phipps, 05 Mar 2021
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RC2: 'Review of a Geoscientific Model Development manuscript on “An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3” By S. J. Phipps et al.', Anonymous Referee #2, 28 Dec 2020
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AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Steven Phipps, 05 Mar 2021
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AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Steven Phipps, 05 Mar 2021
Steven J. Phipps et al.
Data sets
An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 Steven J. Phipps, Jason L. Roberts, and Matt A. King https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4275053
Model code and software
An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 Steven J. Phipps, Jason L. Roberts, and Matt A. King https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4275053
Steven J. Phipps et al.
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