Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-373
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-373

Submitted as: development and technical paper 10 Dec 2020

Submitted as: development and technical paper | 10 Dec 2020

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

Modifying emission scenario projections to account for the effects of COVID-19: protocol for Covid-MIP

Robin D. Lamboll1, Chris D. Jones2, Ragnhild B. Skeie3, Stephanie Fiedler4,5, Bjørn H. Samset3, Nathan P. Gillett6, Joeri Rogelj1,7, and Piers M. Forster8 Robin D. Lamboll et al.
  • 1Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
  • 2Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
  • 3CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
  • 4Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Köln, Germany
  • 5Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics, Bonn/Cologne, Germany
  • 6Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, Canada
  • 7International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
  • 8Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

Abstract. Lockdowns to avoid the spread of COVID-19 have created an unprecedented reduction in human emissions. While the country-level scale of emissions changes can be estimated in near-real-time, the more detailed, gridded emissions estimates that are required to run General Circulation Models (GCM) of the climate will take longer to collect. In this paper we use recorded and projected country-and-sector activity levels to modify gridded predictions from the MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP2-4.5 scenario. We provide updated projections for concentrations of greenhouse gases, emissions fields for aerosols and precursors, and the ozone and optical properties that result from this. The codebase to perform similar modifications to other scenarios is also provided.

We outline the means by which these results may be used in a model intercomparison project (CovidMIP) to investigate the impact of national lockdown measures on climate. This includes three strands: an assessment of short-term effects (5-year period), of longer-term effects (30 years) and an investigation into the separate effects of changes in emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. This last strand supports possible attribution of observed changes in the climate system, hence these simulations will also form part of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP).

Robin D. Lamboll et al.

 
Status: open (until 04 Feb 2021)
Status: open (until 04 Feb 2021)
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Robin D. Lamboll et al.

Data sets

Emissions changes in 2020 due to Covid-19 Piers Forster, Robin Lamboll, and Joeri Rogelj https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3957826

CO2 emissions changes due to COVID-19: modified SSP2-4.5 to account for sector activity level Robin Lamboll, Piers Forster, and Joeri Rogelj https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3951601

Daily aerosol emissions changes in 2020 due to Covid19: modified SSP2-4.5 to account for sector activity level Robin Lamboll, Piers Forster, and Joeri Rogelj https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3952960

Weekly NOx aviation emissions changes due to COVID-19: modified SSP2-4.5 to account for sector activity level Robin Lamboll, Piers Forster, and Joeri Rogelj https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3956794

Ozone changes due to the COVID-19 response Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4106460

Model code and software

Modifying aerosol emissions and GHG concentrations to reflect the impact of lockdown Robin Lamboll https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4281019

Robin D. Lamboll et al.

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Short summary
Lockdowns to avoid the spread of COVID-19 have created an unprecedented reduction in human emissions. We can estimate the changes in emissions at a country level, but to make predictions about how this will affect our climate, we need more precise information about where the emissions happen. Here we combine older estimates of where emissions normally occur with very recent estimates of sector activity levels to enable different groups to make simulations of the climatic effects of lockdown.