Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-349
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-349

Submitted as: development and technical paper 20 Nov 2020

Submitted as: development and technical paper | 20 Nov 2020

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

Reproducing complex simulations of economic impacts of climate change with lower-cost emulators

Jun'ya Takakura1, Shinichiro Fujimori2, Kiyoshi Takahashi1, Naota Hanasaki3, Tomoko Hasegawa4, Yukiko Hirabayashi5, Yasushi Honda6, Toshichika Iizumi7, Chan Park8, Makoto Tamura9, and Yasuaki Hijioka3 Jun'ya Takakura et al.
  • 1Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
  • 2Department Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, 615-8540, Japan
  • 3Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
  • 4Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ritsumeikan University, Kusatsu, 525-8577, Japan
  • 5Department of Civil Engineering, Shibaura Institute of Technology, Tokyo, 135-8548, Japan
  • 6Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, 305-8577, Japan
  • 7Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba, 305-8604 Japan
  • 8Department of Landscape Architecture, College of Urban Science, University of Seoul, Seoul, 02504, Korea
  • 9Institute for Global Change Adaptation Science, Ibaraki University, Mito, 310-8512, Japan

Abstract. In order to project climate-change impacts under a wide-range of scenarios or conduct on-line coupled simulations, the computational and implementation cost of economic impact calculations should be reduced. To do so, in this study, we developed various emulators that mimic simulation outputs, namely economic models coupled with bio/physical process-based impact models. Their performance was evaluated for multiple sectors and regions. Among the tested emulators, those composed of artificial neural networks, which can incorporate nonlinearities and interactions between variables, performed better particularly when finer input variables were available. Although simple functional forms were effective for approximating general tendencies, complex emulators are necessary if the focus is regional or sectoral heterogeneity. The developed emulators could be used to explore future scenarios related to climate-change policies, and the findings of this study could also help researchers design their own emulators under different situations.

Jun'ya Takakura et al.

 
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Jun'ya Takakura et al.

Model code and software

Code and data for the paper "Reproducing complex simulations of economic impacts of climate change with lower-cost emulators" Jun'ya Takakura https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4094166

Jun'ya Takakura et al.

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Short summary
To simplify calculating economic impacts of climate change, Statistical methods called emulators are developed and evaluated. There are trade-offs between model complexity and emulation performance. Aggregated economic impacts can be approximated by relatively simple emulators, but complex emulators are necessary to accommodate finer-scale economic impacts.