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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-115
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-115
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: model evaluation paper 14 Jul 2020

Submitted as: model evaluation paper | 14 Jul 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

The role of asperities in seismicity frequency-magnitude relations using the TREMOL v0.1.0. The case of the Guerrero-Oaxaca subduction zone, México

Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco1, F. Ramón Zúñiga2, Armando Aguilar-Meléndez1,3, Otilio Rojas1,4, Quetzalcóatl Rodríguez-Pérez2,5, and Josep de la Puente1 Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco et al.
  • 1Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputación, Jordi Girona 29, 08034, Barcelona, Spain
  • 2Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Centro de Geociencias, Juriquilla México
  • 3Facultad de Ingeniería Civil,Universidad Veracruzana, Poza Rica, Veracruz, 93390, México
  • 4Escuela de Computación, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Central de Venezuela, Caracas, 1040, Venezuela
  • 5Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología, Mexico City, 03940, México

Abstract. Seismicity and magnitude distributions are fundamental for any type of seismic hazard analysis. The Mexican subduction zone along the Pacific Coast is one of the most active seismic zones in the world. Some peculiar characteristics of the seismicity have been observed for a subregion of the subduction regime, which has been named SUB3 in a recent seismotectonic regionalization of the country, suggesting that the observed simplicity of this source arises from the rupturing of single asperities. In this work, we numerically test this hypothesis using the TREMOL (sThochastic Rupture Earthquake MOdeL) v0.1.0 code. As test cases, we choose four of the most significant events (6.5 < Mw < 7.8) that occurred in the Guerrero-Oaxaca region (SUB3) during the period 1988–2018, and whose associated seismicities are well recorded in the regional catalogs. Synthetic seismicity results show a reasonable fit to the real data, approaching it when the available data from the real events increases. These results give support to the hypothesis that single asperity ruptures mainly control seismicity in SUB3. Moreover, a fault aspect ratio sensitivity analysis is carried out to study how the synthetic seismicity varies. Our results indicate that the asperity shape is an important modeling parameter controlling the frequency-magnitude distribution of synthetic data. Therefore, TREMOL provides proper scenarios to model complex seismicity curves as that observed in the SUB3 region, highlighting its usefulness as a tool to study the earthquake process.

Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco et al.

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Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco et al.

Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco et al.

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Short summary
The Mexican subduction zone along the Pacific Coast is one of the most active seismic zones in the world, where every year larger magnitude earthquakes shake huge inland cities such as Mexico City. In this work, we use TREMOL (sThochastic Rupture Earthquake ModeL) to simulate the seismicity observed in this zone. Our numerical results reinforce the hypothesis that in some subduction regions single asperities are responsible to produce the observed seismicity.
The Mexican subduction zone along the Pacific Coast is one of the most active seismic zones in...
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