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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">GMDD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Geoscientific Model Development Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">GMDD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1991-962X</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/gmd-2016-213</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Description and evaluation of REFIST v1.0: a regional greenhouse gas flux inversion system in Canada</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chan</surname>
<given-names>Elton</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9009-0633</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chan</surname>
<given-names>Douglas</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ishizawa</surname>
<given-names>Misa</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4177-9447</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vogel</surname>
<given-names>Felix</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2548-3390</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Brioude</surname>
<given-names>Jerome</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5603-7924</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Delcloo</surname>
<given-names>Andy</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5807-6241</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wu</surname>
<given-names>Yuehua</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jin</surname>
<given-names>Baisuo</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Climate Research Division,  Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Center for Global Environmental Research,  National Institute for Environmental Studies,  Tsukuba, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l&apos;Environnement, Chaire BridGES, Gif-sur-Yvette, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Laboratoire de l&apos;Atmosphere et des Cyclones, UMR8105,  CNRS-Meteo France-Universite La Reunion, La Reunion,  France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Uccle, Belgium</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Mathematics and Statistics,  York University,  Toronto, Ontario, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Statistics and Finance,  University of Science and Technology of China,  Hefei, Anhui, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>08</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2016</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>66</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2016 Elton Chan et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2016</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/gmd-2016-213/">This article is available from https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/gmd-2016-213/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/gmd-2016-213/gmd-2016-213.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/gmd-2016-213/gmd-2016-213.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>A regional greenhouse gas flux inversion system (REFIST v1.0) is described. This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of REFIST for three provinces in Canada that include Alberta (AB), Saskatchewan (SK) and Ontario (ON). Using year 2009 fossil fuel CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; CarbonTracker model results as the target, the synthetic data experiment analyses examined the impacts of the errors from the Bayesian optimisation method, inversion time span, prior flux distribution, region definition and the atmospheric transport model, as well as their interactions. The posterior fluxes were estimated by two different optimisation methods, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and cost function minimization (CFM) methods. Increasing the number of sub-regions (unknowns) beyond &quot;optimality&quot; can produce unstable and unrealistic fluxes for some sub-regions, and does not yield significantly different flux estimates overall. The two optimisation methods can provide comparable, stable and realistic flux results when the transport model error is small (prior R&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;~0.8 with synthetic observations), but both methods present difficulty when the transport model error is large (prior R&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;~0.3). Stable and realistic sub-regional and monthly flux estimates for the western region of AB+SK can be obtained, but not for the eastern region of ON without excluding a poorly simulated station. This indicates a real observation-based inversion will likely work for the western region for tracers with similar temporal and spatial emission characteristics to fossil fuel CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; [e.g. wintertime CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; in Canada]. However, improvements are needed with the current inversion setup before a real inversion is performed for the eastern region.</p>
</abstract>
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