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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">GMDD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Geoscientific Model Development Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">GMDD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1991-962X</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/gmdd-6-6975-2013</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Modelling economic and biophysical drivers of agricultural land-use change. Calibration and evaluation of the Nexus Land-Use model over 1961&amp;ndash;2006</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Souty</surname>
<given-names>F.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dorin</surname>
<given-names>B.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Brunelle</surname>
<given-names>T.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dumas</surname>
<given-names>P.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3896-7589</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ciais</surname>
<given-names>P.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8560-4943</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Centre International de Recherche sur l&apos;Environnement et le Développement, Nogent-sur-Marne, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l&apos;Environnement, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, Montpellier, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>19</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>6</volume>
<issue>4</issue>
<fpage>6975</fpage>
<lpage>7046</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2013 F. Souty et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2013</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/6/6975/2013/gmdd-6-6975-2013.html">This article is available from https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/6/6975/2013/gmdd-6-6975-2013.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/6/6975/2013/gmdd-6-6975-2013.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/6/6975/2013/gmdd-6-6975-2013.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The central role of land-use change in the Earth System and its
  implications for food security, biodiversity and climate has spurred
  the development of global models that combine economical and
  agro-ecological drivers and constraints. With such a development of
  integrated approaches, evaluating the performance of global models
  of land-use against observed historical changes recorded by
  agricultural data becomes increasingly challenging. The Nexus
  Land-Use model is an example of land-use model integrating both
  biophysical and economical processes and constraints. This paper is
  an attempt to evaluate its ability to simulate historical
  agricultural land-use changes over 12 large but economically
  coherent regions of the world since 1961. The evaluation focuses on
  the intensification vs. extensification response of crop and
  livestock production in response to changes of socio-economic
  drivers over time, such as fertiliser price, population and diet. We
  examine how well the Nexus model can reproduce annual
  observation-based estimates of cropland vs. pasture areas from 1961
  to 2006. Food trade, consumption of fertilisers and food price are
  also evaluated against historical data. Over the 12 regions
  considered, the total relative error on simulated cropland area is
  2% yr&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;1&lt;/sup&gt; over 1980–2006. During the period
  1961–2006, the error is larger (4% yr&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;1&lt;/sup&gt;) due to an
  overestimation of the cropland area in China and Former Soviet Union
  over 1961–1980. Food prices tend to be underestimated while the
  performances of the trade module vary widely among regions (net
  imports are underestimated in Western countries at the expense of
  Brazil and Asia). Finally, a sensitivity analysis over a sample of
  input datasets provides some insights on the robustness of this
  evaluation.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="72"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
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