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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">GMD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Geoscientific Model Development</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">GMD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Geosci. Model Dev.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1991-9603</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/gmd-7-1961-2014</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Short ensembles: an efficient method for discerning climate-relevant sensitivities in atmospheric general circulation models</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wan</surname>
<given-names>H.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rasch</surname>
<given-names>P. J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhang</surname>
<given-names>K.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Qian</surname>
<given-names>Y.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Yan</surname>
<given-names>H.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhao</surname>
<given-names>C.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>School of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>08</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2014</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>7</volume>
<issue>5</issue>
<fpage>1961</fpage>
<lpage>1977</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2014 H. Wan et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2014</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1961/2014/gmd-7-1961-2014.html">This article is available from https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1961/2014/gmd-7-1961-2014.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1961/2014/gmd-7-1961-2014.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/7/1961/2014/gmd-7-1961-2014.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>This paper explores the feasibility of an experimentation strategy
  for investigating sensitivities in fast components of atmospheric
  general circulation models.  The basic idea is to replace the
  traditional serial-in-time long-term climate integrations by
  representative ensembles of shorter simulations.  The key advantage
  of the proposed method lies in its efficiency: since fewer days of
  simulation are needed, the computational cost is less, and because
  individual realizations are independent and can be integrated
  simultaneously, the new dimension of parallelism can dramatically
  reduce the turnaround time in benchmark tests, sensitivities
  studies, and model tuning exercises. The strategy is not appropriate
  for exploring sensitivity of all model features, but it is very
  effective in many situations.
&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;
  Two examples are presented using the Community Atmosphere Model,
  version 5.  In the first example, the method is used to
  characterize sensitivities of the simulated clouds to time-step length.
  Results show that 3-day ensembles of 20 to 50 members are sufficient
  to reproduce the main signals revealed by traditional 5-year simulations.
  A nudging technique is applied to an additional set of simulations to
  help understand the contribution of physics–dynamics interaction
  to the detected time-step sensitivity.  In the second example, multiple empirical
  parameters related to cloud microphysics and aerosol life cycle are
  perturbed simultaneously in order to find out which parameters have
  the largest impact on the simulated global mean top-of-atmosphere
  radiation balance. It turns out that 12-member ensembles of 10-day
  simulations are able to reveal the same sensitivities
  as seen in 4-year simulations performed in a previous study.
  In both cases, the ensemble method reduces the total
  computational time by a factor of about 15, and the turnaround time
  by a factor of several hundred.
  The efficiency of the method makes it
  particularly useful for the development of high-resolution, costly,
  and complex climate models.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="17"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
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