References

GMD

Geoscientific Model Development

GMD

Geosci. Model Dev.

1991-9603

Copernicus Publications

Göttingen, Germany

10.5194/gmd-6-517-2013

Simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period using two versions of the NASA/GISS ModelE2-R Coupled Model

Chandler

M. A.

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6548-227X

² ¹ Sohl

L. E.

² ¹ Jonas

J. A.

¹ ² Dowsett

H. J.

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1983-7524

³ Kelley

² ⁴

Center for Climate Systems Research at Columbia University, New York, New York, USA

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA

Eastern Geology & Paleoclimate Science Center, US Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia, USA

Trinnovim LLC, 2880 Broadway, New York, New York 10025, USA

24 04 2013

6 2 517 531

2013

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

This article is available from https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/6/517/2013/gmd-6-517-2013.html

The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/6/517/2013/gmd-6-517-2013.pdf

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) bears many similarities to aspects of future global warming as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007). Both marine and terrestrial data point to high-latitude temperature amplification, including large decreases in sea ice and land ice, as well as expansion of warmer climate biomes into higher latitudes. Here we present our most recent simulations of the mid-Pliocene climate using the CMIP5 version of the NASA/GISS Earth System Model (ModelE2-R). We describe the substantial impact associated with a recent correction made in the implementation of the Gent-McWilliams ocean mixing scheme (GM), which has a large effect on the simulation of ocean surface temperatures, particularly in the North Atlantic Ocean. The effect of this correction on the Pliocene climate results would not have been easily determined from examining its impact on the preindustrial runs alone, a useful demonstration of how the consequences of code improvements as seen in modern climate control runs do not necessarily portend the impacts in extreme climates. Both the GM-corrected and GM-uncorrected simulations were contributed to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Experiment 2. Many findings presented here corroborate results from other PlioMIP multi-model ensemble papers, but we also emphasise features in the ModelE2-R simulations that are unlike the ensemble means. The corrected version yields results that more closely resemble the ocean core data as well as the PRISM3D reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene, especially the dramatic warming in the North Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea, which in the new simulation appears to be far more realistic than previously found with older versions of the GISS model. Our belief is that continued development of key physical routines in the atmospheric model, along with higher resolution and recent corrections to mixing parameterisations in the ocean model, have led to an Earth System Model that will produce more accurate projections of future climate.

References 1

Bender, F. A. M.: Planetary albedo in a strongly forced climate, as simulated by the CMIP3 models, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 105, 529–535, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0411-2">https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0411-2</a>, 2011.

Chandler, M. A. and Rind, D.: The Influence of Warm North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures on the Pliocene Climate: GCM Sensitivity Experiments, EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 73(14) Supp., 169, 1992.

Chandler, M. A., Rind, D., and Thompson, R. S.: Joint investigations of the middle Pliocene climate II: GISS GCM Northern Hemisphere results, Global Planet. Change, 9, 197–219, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(94)90016-7">https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(94)90016-7</a>, 1994.

Conkright, M. E., Levitus, S., O'Brien, T., Boyer, T. P., Stephens, C., Johnson, D., Stathoplos, L., Baranova, O., Antonov, J., Gelfeld, R., Burney, J., Rochester, J., and Forgy, C.: World Ocean Database 1998 Documentation and Quality Control, National Oceanographic Data Center, Silver Spring, MD, 1998.

Del Genio, A. D., Yao, M.-S., Kovari, W., and Lo, K. K.-W.: A prognostic cloud water parameterisation for global climate models, J. Climate, 9, 270–304, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<0270:APCWPF>2.0.CO;2">https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<0270:APCWPF>2.0.CO;2</a>, 1996.

Dowsett, H. J., Barron, J., and Poore, R.: Middle Pliocene sea surface temperatures: A global reconstruction, Marine Micropaleontol., 27, 13–25, 1996.

Dowsett, H. J., Robinson, M. M., and Foley, K. M.: Pliocene three-dimensional global ocean temperature reconstruction, Clim. Past, 5, 769–783, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-769-2009">https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-769-2009</a>, 2009.

Dowsett, H., Robinson, M., Haywood, A., Salzmann, U., Hill, D., Sohl, L., Chandler, M., Williams, M., Foley, K., and Stoll, D.: The PRISM3D paleoenvironmental reconstruction, Stratigraphy, 7, 123–139, 2010a.

Dowsett, H. J., Robinson, M. M., Stoll, D. K., and Foley, K. M.: Mid-Piacenzian mean annual sea surface temperature analysis for data-model comparisons, Stratigraphy, 7, 189–198, 2010b.

Galfetti, T., Bucher, H., Brayard, A., Hochuli, P. A., Weissert, H., Guodun, K., Atudorei, V., and Guex, J.: Late Early Triassic climate change: Insights from carbonate carbon isotopes, sedimentary evolution and ammonoid palaeobiogeography, Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol, 243, 394–411, 2007.

Gent, P. R. and McWilliams, J. C.: Isopycnal mixing in ocean circulation models, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 20, 150–155, 1990.

Gent, P. R., Willebrand, J., McDougall, T. J., and McWilliams, J. C.: Parameterizing eddy-induced tracer transports in ocean circulation models, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 25, 463–474, 1995.

Hansen, J. E. and Sato, Mki.: Paleoclimate implications for human-made climate change, in Climate Change: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects, edited by: Berger, A., Mesinger, F., and Šijački, D., Springer, Vienna, Austria, 21–48, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_2">https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_2</a>, 2012.

Hansen, J. E., Ruedy, R., Lacis, A., Sato, Mki., Nazarenko, L., Tausnev, N., Tegen, I., and Koch, D.: Climate modelling in the global warming debate. In General Circulation Model Development, edited by: Randall, D., Academic Press, 127–164, 2000.

Hansen, J. E., Sato, Mki., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Lacis, A., Koch, D., Tegen, I., Hall, T., Shindell, D., Santer, B., Stone, P., Novakov, T., Thomason, L., Wang, R., Wang, Y., Jacob, D., Hollandsworth, S., Bishop, L., Logan, J., Thompson, A., Stolarski, R., Lean, J., Willson, R., Levitus, S., Antonov, J., Rayner, N., Parker, D., and Christy, J.: Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4347, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2001JD001143">https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD001143</a>, 2002.

Haywood, A. M., Valdes, P. J., and Sellwood, B. W.: Global scale paleoclimate reconstruction of the middle Pliocene climate using the UKMO GCM: initial results, Global Planet. Chang., 25, 239–256, 2000.

Haywood, A. M., Chandler, M. A., Valdes, P. J., Salzmann, U., Lunt, D. J., and Dowsett, H. J.: Comparison of mid-Pliocene climate predictions produced by the HadAM3 and GCMAM3 General Circulation Models, Global Planet. Chang., 66, 208–224, 2009.

Haywood, A. M., Dowsett, H. J., Otto-Bliesner, B., Chandler, M. A., Dolan, A. M., Hill, D. J., Lunt, D. J., Robinson, M. M., Rosenbloom, N., Salzmann, U., and Sohl, L. E.: Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): experimental design and boundary conditions (Experiment 1), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 227–242, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-227-2010">https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-227-2010</a>, 2010.

Haywood, A. M., Dowsett, H. J., Robinson, M. M., Stoll, D. K., Dolan, A. M., Lunt, D. J., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Chandler, M. A.: Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): experimental design and boundary conditions (Experiment 2), Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 571–577, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-571-2011">https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-571-2011</a>, 2011.

Haywood, A. M., Hill, D. J., Dolan, A. M., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Bragg, F., Chan, W.-L., Chandler, M. A., Contoux, C., Dowsett, H. J., Jost, A., Kamae, Y., Lohmann, G., Lunt, D. J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Pickering, S. J., Ramstein, G., Rosenbloom, N. A., Salzmann, U., Sohl, L., Stepanek, C., Ueda, H., Yan, Q., and Zhang, Z.: Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project, Clim. Past, 9, 191–209, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013">https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013</a>, 2013.

Hill, D. J., Haywood, A. M., Hindmarsh, R. C. M., and Valdes, P. J.: Characterising ice sheets during the Pliocene: evidence from data and models, in: Deep-time perspectives on climate change: marrying the signal from computer models and biological proxies, edited by: Williams, M., Haywood, A. M., Gregory, J., and Schmidt, D., Micropalaeontol. Soc., Spec. Pub. Geol. Soc., London, 517–538, 2007.

IPCC: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, 996 pp., 2007.

Jiang, D. B., Wang, H. J., Ding, Z. L., Lang, X. M., and Drange, H.: Modeling the middle Pliocene climate with a global atmospheric general circulation model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 110, D14107, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005639">https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005639</a>, 2005.

Kürschner, W. M., Van der Burgh, J., Visscher, H., and Dilcher, D. L.: Oak leaves as biosensors of late Neogene and early Pleistocene paleoatmospheric CO2 concentrations, Mar. Micropaleontol., 27, 299–312, 1996.

Liu, Y. H., Key, J. R., and Wang, X. J.: Influence of changes in sea ice concentration and cloud cover on recent Arctic surface temperature trends, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L20710, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040708">https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040708</a>, 2009.

Lythe, M. B., Vaughn, D. G., and the BEDMAP Consortium: BEDMAP – bed topography of the Antarctic, Cambridge, UK, British Antarctic Survey, 2000, Digital media available at: <a href="http://nsidc.org/data/atlas/">http://nsidc.org/data/atlas/</a>, last access: 23 January 2011.

Matthews, E.: Global vegetation and land use: New high-resolution data bases for climate studies, J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol., 22, 474–487, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1983)022<0474:GVALUN>2.0.CO;2">https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1983)022<0474:GVALUN>2.0.CO;2</a>, 1983.

Matthews, E.: Prescription of Land-Surface Boundary Conditions in GISS GCM II: A Simple Method Based on High-Resolution Vegetation Data Bases, NASA TM-86096, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1984.

Meehl, G. A., Stocker, T. F., Collins, W. D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A. T., Gregory, J. M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J. M., Noda, A., Raper, S. C. B., Watterson, I. G., Weaver, A. J., and Zhao, Z.-C.: Global Climate Projections, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007.

Pagani, M., Liu, Z. H., LaRiviere, J., and Ravelo, A. C.: High Earth-system climate sensitivity determined from Pliocene carbon dioxide concentrations, Nat. Geosci., 3, 27–30, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/NGEO724">https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO724</a>, 2010.

Pearson, P. N., van Dongen, B. E., Nicholas, C. J., Pancost, R. D., Schouten, S., Singano, J. M., and Wade, B. S.: Stable warm tropical climate through the Eocene Epoch, Geology, 35, 211–214, 2007.

Pollard, D. and DeConto, R. M.: Modelling West Antarctic ice sheet growth and collapse through the past five million years, Nature, 458, 329–332, 2009.

Poore, R. Z. and Chandler, M. A.: Simulating past climates, The data-model connection, Global Planet. Change, 9, 165–167, 1994.

Raymo, M. E., Grant, B., Horowitz, M., and Rau, G. H.: Mid-Pliocene warmth: Stronger greenhouse and stronger conveyor, Mar. Micropaleontol., 27, 313–326, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0377-8398(95)00048-8">https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-8398(95)00048-8</a>, 1996.

Redi, M. H.: Oceanic isopycnal mixing by coordinate rotation, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 12, 1154–1158, 1982.

Rind, D. and Chandler, M. A.: Increased ocean heat transports and warmer climate, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 7437–7461, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/91JD00009">https://doi.org/10.1029/91JD00009</a>, 1991.

Russell, G. L., Miller, J. R., and Rind, D.: A coupled atmosphere-ocean model for transient climate change studies, Atmos.-Ocean, 33, 683–730, 1995.

Salzmann, U., Haywood, A. M., Lunt D. J., Valdes, P. J., and Hill, D. J.: A new Global Biome Reconstruction and Data-Model Comparison for the middle Pliocene, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 17, 432–447, 2008.

Schmidt, G. A., Ruedy, R., Hansen, J. E., Aleinov, I., Bell, N., Bauer, M., Bauer, S., Cairns, B., Canuto, V., Cheng, Y., Del Genio, A., Faluvegi, G., Friend, A. D., Hall, T. M., Hu, Y., Kelley, M., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Lacis, A. A., Lerner, J., Lo, K. K., Miller, R. L., Nazarenko, L., Oinas, V., Perlwitz, J. P., Perlwitz, Ju., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Russell, G. L., Sato, Mki., Shindell, D. T., Stone, P. H., Sun, S., Tausnev, N., Thresher, D., and Yao, M.-S.: Present day atmospheric simulations using GISS ModelE: Comparison to in-situ, satellite and reanalysis data, J. Climate, 19, 153–192, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3612.1">https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3612.1</a>, 2006.

Schmidt, G. A., Kelley, M., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S., Bhat, M. K., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Chen, Y., Ye Cheng, Clune, T. L., Del Genio, A., de Fainchtein, R., Faluvegi, G., Hansen, J. E., Healy, R. J., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Lacis, A. A., LeGrande, A. N., Lerner, J., Lo, K. K., Marshall, J., Menon, S., Miller, R. L., Oinas, V., Oloso, A. O., Perlwitz, J., Puma, M. J., Putman, W. M., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Sato, M., Shindell, D. T., Shan Sun, Syed, R. A., Tausnev, N., Tsigaridis, K., Unger, N., Voulgarakis, A., Mao-Sung Yao, and Jinlun Zhang: Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive, in preparation, 2013.

Scroxton, N., Bonham, S. G., Rickaby, R. E. M., Lawrence, S. H. F., Hermoso, M., and Haywood, A. M.: Persistent El Niño–Southern Oscillation variation during the Pliocene Epoch, Paleoceanography, 26, PA2215, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010PA002097">https://doi.org/10.1029/2010PA002097</a>, 2011.

Seki, O., Foster, G. L., Schmidt, D. N., Mackensen, A., Kawamura, K., and Pancost, R. D.: Alkenone and boron-based Pliocene pCO2 records, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 292, 201–211, 2010.

Shukla, S. P., Chandler, M. A., Jonas, J., Sohl, L. E., Mankoff, K., and Dowsett, H.: Impact of a permanent El Niño (El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole in warm Pliocene climates, Paleoceanography, 24, PA2221, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008PA001682">https://doi.org/10.1029/2008PA001682</a>, 2009.

Shukla, S. P., Chandler, M. A., Rind, D., Sohl, L. E., Jonas, J., and Lerner, J.: Teleconnections in a warmer climate: The Pliocene perspective, Clim. Dynam., 37, 1869–1887, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0976-y">https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0976-y</a>, 2011.

Sloan, L. C., Crowley, T. C., and Pollard, D.: Modeling of middle Pliocene climate with the NCAR GENESIS general circulation model, Mar. Micropaleontol., 27, 51–61, 1996.

Sohl, L. E., Chandler, M. A., Schmunk, R. B., Mankoff, K., Jonas, J. A., Foley, K. M., and Dowsett, H. J.: PRISM3/GISS topographic reconstruction, U. S. Geol. Surv. Data Series, 419, 6 pp., 2009.

Tang, Q. H., Leng, G. Y., and Groisman, P. Y.: European hot summers associated with a reduction of cloudiness, J. Climate, 25, 3637–3644, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00040.1">https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00040.1</a>, 2012.

Visbeck, M., Marshall, J., Haine, T., and Spall, M.: Specification of Eddy Transfer Coefficients in Coarse-Resolution Ocean Circulation Models, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 381–402, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1997)027<0381:SOETCI>2.0.CO;2">https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1997)027<0381:SOETCI>2.0.CO;2</a>, 1997.

Wang, H. L. and Lau, K. M.: Atmospheric hydrological cycle in the tropics in twentieth century coupled climate simulations, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 655–678, 2006.

Watanabe, T., Suzuki, A., Minobe, S., Kawashima, T., Kameo, K., Minoshima, K., Aguilar, Y. M., Wani, R., Kawahata, H., Sowa, K., Nagai, T., and Kase, T.: Permanent El Nino during Pliocene warm period not suppoted by coral evidence, Nature, 471, 209–211, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature09777">https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09777</a>, 2011.

Zachos, J. M., Scott, L. D., and Lohmann, K. C.: Evolution of early Cenozoic marine temperatures, Paleoceanography, 9, 353–387, 1994.

Zhang, Z.-S., Nisancioglu, K. H., Chandler, M. A., Haywood, A. M., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Ramstein, G., Stepanek, C., Abe-Ouchi, A., Chan, W.-L., Bragg, F. J., Contoux, C., Dolan, A. M., Hill, D. J., Jost, A., Kamae, Y., Lohmann, G., Lunt, D. J., Rosenbloom, N. A., Sohl, L. E., and Ueda, H.: Mid-pliocene Atlantic meridional overturning circulation not unlike modern?, Clim. Past Discuss., 9, 1297–1319, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-9-1297-2013">https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-9-1297-2013</a>, 2013.