The sixth version of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate
(MIROC), called MIROC6, was cooperatively developed by a Japanese modeling
community. In the present paper, simulated mean climate, internal
climate variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6 are evaluated and
briefly summarized in comparison with the previous version of our climate
model (MIROC5) and observations. The results show that the overall
reproducibility of mean climate and internal climate variability in MIROC6
is better than that in MIROC5. The tropical climate systems (e.g.,
summertime precipitation in the western Pacific and the eastward-propagating
Madden–Julian oscillation) and the midlatitude atmospheric circulation
(e.g., the westerlies, the polar night jet, and troposphere–stratosphere
interactions) are significantly improved in MIROC6. These improvements can
be attributed to the newly implemented parameterization for shallow
convective processes and to the inclusion of the stratosphere. While there
are significant differences in climates and variabilities between the two
models, the effective climate sensitivity of 2.6 K remains the same because
the differences in radiative forcing and climate feedback tend to offset
each other. With an aim towards contributing to the sixth phase of the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, designated simulations tackling a
wide range of climate science issues, as well as seasonal to decadal climate
predictions and future climate projections, are currently ongoing using
MIROC6.
Introduction
As global warming due to increasing emissions of anthropogenic
greenhouse gases progresses, global and regional patterns of atmospheric
circulation and precipitation as well as temperature are projected to be
drastically changed by the end of the twenty-first century (e.g.,
Neelin et al., 2006; Zhang et al., 2007; Bengtsson et al., 2009; Andrews et
al., 2010; Scaife et al., 2012); the occurrence frequency of extreme
weather events such as heat waves and droughts will be increased, and
extratropical cyclones will be stronger than in the present (e.g., Mizuta, 2012; Sillmann et al., 2013; Zappa et al., 2013). Corresponding to the
atmospheric changes under global warming, the sea levels will rise due
to the thermal expansion of seawater and ice sheet melting in the polar
continental regions (e.g., Church and White, 2011; Bamber and Aspinall,
2013). Additionally, ocean acidification due to the absorption of atmospheric
carbon dioxide (CO2) and changes in carbon–nitrogen cycles are expected
to lead to the loss of Earth biodiversity (e.g., Riebesell et al., 2009;
Rockström et al., 2009; Taucher and Oschlies, 2011; Watanabe and Kawamiya, 2017). Societal demands for information on global and regional climate
changes have increased significantly worldwide in order to meet information
requirements for political decision-making related to mitigation and
adaptation to global warming.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has continuously
published assessment reports (ARs) in which a comprehensive view of
past, present, and future climate changes on various timescales, including
centennial global warming, is synthesized. Together with observations,
climate models have been contributing to the IPCC ARs through a broad range
of numerical simulations, especially future climate projections after the
twenty-first century. However, there are many uncertainties in future
climate projections, and the range of uncertainties has not been narrowed by
an update of the IPCC reports. The uncertainties are arising from
imperfections of climate models in representing microscale to global-scale
physical and dynamical processes in subsystems of the Earth's climate and
their interactions. To reduce the uncertainties and errors in climate
projections and predictions, utilizing observations, extracting the essences of
physical processes in the real climate, and investigating the response of
the climate system to various external forcings based on a set of climate
model simulations are necessary. In particular, a state-of-the-art climate
model that can represent various processes in the Earth's climate system is
a powerful tool for a deeper understanding of the Earth's climate system.
One Japanese climate model, which is called MIROC (Model for
Interdisciplinary Research on Climate), has been cooperatively developed at
the Center for Climate System Research (CCSR; the precursor of a part of the
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute), the University of Tokyo, the Japan
Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), and the National
Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES). Utilizing MIROC, our Japanese
climate modeling group has been tackling a wide range of climate science
issues as well as seasonal to decadal climate predictions and future climate
projections. At the same time, by providing simulation data, we have been
participating in the third and fifth phases of the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5; Meehl et al., 2007; Taylor et al., 2012) that has been contributing to the IPCC ARs by synthesizing
multi-model ensemble datasets.
In the years up to the IPCC fifth assessment report (IPCC AR5; IPCC, 2013),
we have developed four versions of MIROC, three of which (MIROC3m, MIROC3h,
and MIROC4h) have almost the same dynamical and physical packages but
different resolutions. MIROC3m (K-1 model developers, 2004) is composed of
T42L20 atmosphere and 1.4∘L43 ocean. Resolutions of MIROC3h (K-1
model developers, 2004) are higher than MIROC3m and are T106L56 for the
atmosphere and eddy-permitting for the ocean (1/4∘×1/6∘). Only the horizontal resolution of the atmosphere of
MIROC3h is changed to T213 in MIROC4h (Sakamoto et al., 2012). MIROC5 is
composed of T85L40 atmosphere and 1.4∘L50 ocean but with
considerably updated physical and dynamical packages (Watanabe et al., 2010). These models have been used to study various scientific issues such
as the detection of natural influences on climate changes (e.g., Nozawa et
al., 2005; Mori et al, 2014; Watanabe et al., 2014), uncertainty
quantification of climate sensitivity (e.g., Shiogama et al., 2012; Kamae et
al., 2016), future projections of regional sea level rises (e.g., Suzuki et
al., 2005; Suzuki and Ishii, 2011), and mechanism studies on tropical
decadal variability (e.g., Tatebe et al., 2013; Mochizuki et al., 2016).
During the last decade, our efforts have been preferentially devoted to
providing science-oriented risk information on climate changes that is
beneficial to international, domestic, and municipal communities. For
example, so-called event attribution (EA) studies with large-ensemble
simulations initiated from slightly different conditions have been conducted
in order to statistically evaluate the influences of global warming on the
occurrence frequencies of observed individual extremes (e.g., Imada et al., 2013; Watanabe et al., 2013; Shiogama et al., 2014). Seasonal to decadal
climate predictions are also of significant concern. By initializing
prognostic variables in our climate models using observation-based data
(Tatebe et al., 2012), significant prediction skills in several specific
phenomena, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the
Arctic sea ice extent on seasonal timescales, the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO; Mantua et al., 1997), the Atlantic Multi-decadal
Oscillation (AMO; Schlesinger and Ramankutty, 1994), and the tropical
trans-basin interactions between the Pacific and the Atlantic on decadal
timescales, are detected (e.g., Mochizuki et al., 2010; Chikamoto et al., 2015; Imada et al., 2015; Ono et al., 2018).
However, while the applicability of MIROC has been extended to a wide range
of climate science issues, almost all of the abovementioned approaches were
based on our medium-resolution versions of MIROC (MIROC3m and MIROC5), and
it is well known that higher-resolution models are capable of better
representing the model mean climate and internal climate variability, such
as regional extremes, orographic winds, and oceanic western boundary
currents and eddies, than lower-resolution models (e.g., Shaffrey et al., 2009;
Roberts et al., 2009; Sakamoto et al., 2012). Nevertheless,
persistent biases remain associated with, for example, cloud–aerosol–radiative
feedback and turbulent vertical mixing of the air in the planetary boundary
layer (e.g., Bony and Dufresne, 2005; Bodas-Salcedo et al., 2012; Williams
et al., 2013), which are tightly linked with dominant uncertainties in
climate projections. Therefore, improvement of physical parameterizations
for sub-grid-scale processes is essential for better representing observed
climatic mean states and internal climate variability. In addition to physical
parameterizations, enhanced vertical resolution in both atmosphere and
ocean components, along with a highly accurate tracer advection scheme, has
been suggested to have impacts on the reproducibility of model climate and
internal climate variations (e.g., Tatebe and Hasumi, 2010; Ineson and
Scaife, 2009; Scaife et al., 2012).
Recently, we have developed the sixth version of MIROC, called MIROC6. This
newly developed climate model has updated physical parameterizations in all
sub-modules. In order to suppress an increase in computational cost, the
horizontal resolutions of MIROC6 are not significantly higher than those of
MIROC5. The reason is that a larger number of ensemble members is required
to realize significant seasonal predictions of, for example, the wintertime
Eurasian climate (Murphy, 1990; Scaife et al., 2014). Indeed, climate
predictions by the older versions of MIROC having at most 10 ensemble
members are skillful only in the tropical climate and the midlatitude ocean,
not in the midlatitude atmosphere. Large-ensemble predictions are also
required in decadal-scale predictions in order to evaluate the human
influences on near-term climate changes. The model top in MIROC6 is
placed at the 0.004 hPa pressure level, which is higher than that of MIROC5
(3 hPa), and the stratospheric vertical resolution has been enhanced in
comparison to MIROC5 in order to represent the stratospheric circulation.
Overall, the reproducibility of the mean climate and internal variability of
MIROC6 is better than that of MIROC5, but the model's computational cost is
about 3.6 times as large as that of MIROC5. Considering that the
computational costs of large-ensemble predictions based on climate models
with horizontal resolutions of, for example, 50 km atmosphere and
eddy-resolving ocean are still huge on recent computer systems, the use of
relatively low-resolution models such as MIROC6 with further elaborated
parameterizations can still be actively useful in science-oriented climate
studies and climate predictions produced for societal needs.
The rest of the present paper is organized as follows. We describe the model configuration, tuning, and spin-up procedures in Sect. 2, while simulated
mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity are evaluated in
Sect. 3. Simulation performance of MIROC6 and remaining issues are briefly
summarized and discussed in Sect. 4. Currently, MIROC6 is being used for
various simulations designed by the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6; Eyring
et al., 2016), which aims to strengthen the scientific basis of
IPCC AR6. Large-ensemble simulations and climate predictions using MIROC6
are also ongoing for science-oriented studies in our modeling group and for
societal benefits. In addition, the latest Earth system model version of
MIROC with the global carbon cycle, whose physical core will be MIROC6, has
been developed for CMIP6 towards a further wide range of issues regarding climate
and societal applications (Hajima et al., 2019).
Model configurations and spin-up procedures
MIROC6 is composed of three sub-models: atmosphere, land, and sea ice–ocean.
The atmospheric model is based on the CCSR-NIES atmospheric general
circulation model (AGCM; Numaguti et al., 1997). The land surface model is
based on Minimal Advanced Treatments of Surface Interaction and Runoff
(MATSIRO; Takata et al. 2003), which includes a river-routing model from Oki
and Sud (1998) based on a kinematic wave flow equation (Ngo-Duc et al., 2007) and a lake module in which one-dimensional thermal diffusion and mass
conservation are considered. The sea ice–ocean model is based on the CCSR
Ocean Component model (COCO; Hasumi, 2006). A coupler system calculates heat
and freshwater fluxes between the sub-models in order to ensure that all
fluxes are conserved within machine precision and then exchanges the fluxes
among the sub-models (Suzuki et al., 2009). No flux adjustments are used in
MIROC6. In the remaining part of this section, we will provide details on
MIROC6 configurations, focusing on updates from MIROC5. Readers may also
refer to Table A1 in Appendix A where the updates are briefly summarized.
Atmospheric component
MIROC6 employs a spectral dynamical core in its AGCM component as in MIROC5.
The horizontal resolution is a T85 spectral truncation that is an
approximately 1.4∘ grid interval for both latitude and longitude.
The vertical grid coordinate is a hybrid σ–p coordinate (Arakawa and
Konor, 1996). The model top is placed at 0.004 hPa, and there are 81
vertical levels (Fig. 1a). The vertical grid arrangement in MIROC6 is
considerably enhanced in comparison to that in MIROC5 (40 levels; 3 hPa) so that the stratospheric circulation can be represented. A sponge layer
that damps wave motions is set at the model-top level by increasing Rayleigh
friction to prevent extra wave reflection near the model top. The
atmospheric component of MIROC6 has standard physical parameterizations for
cumulus convection, radiation transfer, cloud microphysics, turbulence, and
gravity wave drag. It also has an aerosol module. These are basically the
same as those used in MIROC5, but several updates have been made, as will be
detailed below. The parameterizations for cloud microphysics and planetary
boundary layer processes in MIROC6 are the same as in MIROC5. The standard
time step for MIROC6 is 6 min, which is shorter than that of MIROC5 (12 min) because stratospheric winds whose speed sometimes exceeds 150 m s-1 must be resolved in time integration. The time step for radiative
transfer models is set separately and is 3 h in both MIROC6 and
MIROC5.
Vertical half-levels for the atmospheric (a) and the
oceanic (b) components of MIROC6 and MIROC5.
A cumulus parameterization proposed by Chikira and Sugiyama (2010), which
uses an entrainment formulation from Gregory (2001), is adopted in MIROC6 as
in MIROC5. This parameterization deals with multiple cloud types including
shallow cumulus and deep convective clouds. MIROC5, however, tends to
overestimate low-level cloud amounts over the low-latitude oceans and
has a dry bias in the free troposphere. These biases appear to be the result
of insufficient vertical mixing of the humid air in the planetary boundary
layer and the dry air in the free troposphere. To alleviate these biases, an
additional parameterization for shallow cumulus convection based on Park and
Bretherton (2009) is implemented in MIROC6. Shallow convection associated
with atmospheric instability is calculated by the Chikira and Sugiyama
(2010) scheme, and that associated with turbulence in the planetary
boundary layer is represented by the Park and Bretherton (2009) scheme. The
shallow convective parameterization is a mass flux scheme based on a
buoyancy-sorting, entrainment–detrainment, single-plume model that calculates
the vertical transport of liquid water, potential temperature, total water
mixing ratio, and horizontal winds in the lower troposphere. The cloud-base
mass flux is controlled by turbulent kinetic energy within the sub-cloud
layer and convective inhibition. The cloud-base height for shallow cumulus
is set between the lifting condensation level and the boundary layer top,
which is diagnosed based on the vertical profile of relative humidity. When
implementing the parameterization in MIROC6, the following conditions for
triggering the shallow convection are specified: (1) the estimated inversion
strength (Wood and Bretherton, 2006) is smaller than a tuning parameter, and
(2) the convection depth diagnosed by a separate cumulus convection scheme
(Chikira and Sugiyama, 2010) is smaller than a tuning parameter.
The Spectral Radiation Transport Model for Aerosol Species (SPRINTARS;
Takemura et al., 2000, 2005, 2009) is used as an aerosol module for MIROC6
to predict the mass mixing ratios of the main tropospheric aerosols, which
are black carbon, organic matter, sulfate, soil dust, sea salt, and the
precursor gases of sulfate (sulfur dioxide, SO2, and dimethylsulfide).
By coupling the radiation and cloud–precipitation schemes in MIROC,
SPRINTARS calculates not only the aerosol transport processes of emission,
advection, diffusion, sulfur chemistry, wet deposition, dry deposition, and
gravitational settling, but also the aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud
interactions. There are two primary updates in SPRINTARS of MIROC6 that were
not included in MIROC5. One is the treatment of precursor gases of organic
matter as prognostic variables. In the previous version, the conversion
rates from the precursor gases (e.g., terpene and isoprene) to organic
matter are prescribed (Takemura et al., 2000), while an explicit simplified
scheme for secondary organic matter was introduced from a global chemical
climate model (Sudo et al., 2002). The other is a treatment of oceanic
primary and secondary organic matter. Emissions of primary organic matter
are calculated with wind at a 10 m height, the particle diameter of sea salt
aerosols, and chlorophyll a concentration at the ocean surface (Gantt et al., 2011). The oceanic isoprene and monoterpene, which are precursor gases of
organic matter, are emitted depending on the photosynthetically active
radiation, diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm, and the ocean surface
chlorophyll a concentration (Gantt et al., 2009).
The radiative transfer in MIROC6 is calculated by an updated version of the
k-distribution scheme used in MIROC5 (Sekiguchi and Nakajima, 2008). The
single-scattering parameters have been calculated and tabulated in advance,
and liquid, ice, and five aerosol species can be treated in this updated
version. Given the significant effect of crystal habit on a particle's
optical characteristics (Baran, 2012), the assumption of ice particle habit
has been updated from our previous simple assumption of a sphere used in
MIROC5 to a hexagonal solid column (Yang et al., 2013) in MIROC6. The upper
limits of the mode radius of cloud particles have been extended from 32 µm to 0.2 mm for liquids and from 80 µm to 0.5 mm for ice. Therefore,
the scheme can now handle the large-sized water particles (e.g., drizzle and
rain) that have been shown to have significant radiative impacts (Waliser et
al., 2011).
Following Hines (1997) and Watanabe et al. (2011), a non-orographic gravity
wave parameterization is newly implemented into MIROC6 in order to represent
realistic large-scale circulation and thermal structures in the
stratosphere and mesosphere. Following Watanabe (2008), a present-day
climatological source of non-orographic gravity waves, which is estimated
using the results of a gravity-wave-resolving version of the MIROC AGCM (Watanabe et
al., 2008), is launched at the 70 hPa level in the extratropics, while an
isotropic source of non-orographic gravity waves is launched at the 650 hPa
level in the tropics. Together with this parameterization, an orographic
gravity wave parameterization from McFarlane (1987) is also adopted as in
MIROC5. In both the orographic and non-orographic gravity wave
parameterizations, wave source parameters at launch levels are tuned so that
the realistic seasonal progress of the middle atmosphere circulation,
frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings, and period and amplitude of the
equatorial quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) can be represented.
Land surface component
The land surface model is also basically the same as in MIROC5. Energy and
water exchanges between land and atmosphere are calculated, considering the
physical and physiological effects of vegetation with a single-layer canopy,
as well as the thermal and hydrological effects of snow and soil, respectively, with
three-layer snow and six-layer soil down to a 14 m depth. Sub-grid
fractions of land use and snow cover have also been considered. The time step
for the land surface model integration is 1 h in MIROC6, which is the same
as in MIROC5. In addition to the standard package in MIROC5, a few other
physical parameterizations are implemented as described below.
A physically based parameterization of sub-grid snow distribution (SSNOWD;
Liston, 2004; Nitta et al., 2014) replaces the simple functional approach of
snow water equivalent in calculating sub-grid snow fractions in MIROC5 in
order to improve the seasonal cycle of snow cover. In SSNOWD, the snow cover
fraction is formulated for accumulation and ablation seasons separately. For
the ablation season, the snow cover fraction decreases based on the sub-grid
distribution of the snow water equivalent. A lognormal distribution function
is assumed and the coefficient of variation category is diagnosed from the
standard deviation of the sub-grid topography, coldness index, and
vegetation type that is a proxy for surface winds. While the cold degree
month was adopted for coldness in the original SSNOWD, we decided instead to
introduce the annually averaged temperature over the latest 30 years using
the time relaxation method of Krinner et al. (2005), in which the timescale
parameter is set to 16 years. The temperature threshold for a category
diagnosis is set to 0 and 10 ∘C. In addition, a
scheme representing a snow-fed wetland that takes into consideration
sub-grid terrain complexity (Nitta et al., 2017) is incorporated. The river-routing model and lake module are the same as those used in MIROC5, but the
river network map is updated to keep the consistency with the new land–sea
mask (Yamazaki et al., 2009).
Ocean and sea ice component
The ocean component of MIROC6 is basically the same as that used in MIROC5,
but several updates are implemented as described below. The warped bipolar
horizontal coordinate system in MIROC5 has been replaced by the tripolar
coordinate system proposed by Murray (1996). Two singular points in the
bipolar region to the north of about 63∘ N are placed at
(63∘ N, 60∘ E) in Canada and (63∘ N,
120∘ W) in Siberia (Fig. 2). In the spherical coordinate portion
to the south of 63∘ N, the longitudinal grid spacing is
1∘ and the meridional grid spacing varies from about
0.5∘ near the Equator to 1∘ in the midlatitudes. In the
central Arctic Ocean where the bipole coordinate system is applied, the grid
spacings are about 60 km zonal and 33 km meridional, respectively. By
introducing the horizontal tripolar coordinate system, it is expected that
theoretical westward propagation of the oceanic baroclinic Rossby can be
represented with fewer numerical dispersions because of agreement of the
coordinate system and the geographical coordinate system. It is also expected that the
horizontal resolutions in the Arctic Ocean where the Rossby radius of
deformation is relatively small are higher than in the case in which the
bipolar warped coordinate system in MIROC5 is adopted. There are 62 vertical
levels in a hybrid σ–z coordinate system. The horizontal grid spacing
in MIROC5 is nominally 1.4∘, except for the equatorial region, and
there are 49 vertical levels. The resolutions in MIROC6 are higher than in
MIROC5. In particular, 31 (23) of the 62 (49) vertical layers in MIROC6
(MIROC5) are within the upper 500 m of depth (Fig. 1b). The increased number of vertical
layers in MIROC6 has been adopted in order to better represent the
equatorial thermocline and observed complex hydrography in the Arctic Ocean.
An increase in computational costs of the ocean component due to higher
resolutions in MIROC6 is suppressed by implementing a time-staggered scheme
for the tracer and baroclinic momentum equations (Griffies et al., 2005).
Owing to the time-staggered scheme, the time step for the ocean and sea ice
components of MIROC6 is 20 min, which is longer than that in MIROC5 (15 min).
Horizontal grid coordinate system and model bathymetry of the
ocean component of MIROC6.
The tracer advection scheme (Prather, 1986), the surface mixed layer
parameterization (Noh and Kim, 1999), and the parameterization for eddy
isopycnal diffusion (Gent et al., 1995) used in MIROC6 are the same as those
used in MIROC5. Also as in MIROC5, the bottom boundary layer
parameterization of Nakano and Suginohara (2002) is introduced south (north)
of 54∘ S (49∘ N) to represent the downsloping flow
of dense waters. The constant parameters used in the abovementioned
parameterizations are determined in the same manner as that of MIROC5,
except for the Arctic region. An empirical profile of background vertical
diffusivity, which is proposed in Tsujino et al. (2000), is modified above
the 50 m depth to the north of 65∘ N. It is 1.0×10-6 m2 s-1 in the uppermost 29 m and gradually increases to
1.0×10-5 m2 s-1 at the 50 m depth. Additionally,
the turbulent mixing process in the surface mixed layer is changed so that
there is no surface wave breaking and no resultant near-surface mixing in
regions covered by sea ice. The combination of the weak background vertical
diffusivity and suppression of turbulent mixing under the sea ice
contributes to better representations of the surface stratification in the
Arctic Ocean with little impact on the rest of the global oceans (Komuro,
2014).
The sea ice component in MIROC6 is almost the same as in MIROC5. A brief
description, along with some major parameters, is given here. Readers may
refer to Komuro et al. (2012) and Komuro and Suzuki (2013) for further
details. A sub-grid-scale sea ice thickness distribution is incorporated by
following Bitz et al. (2001). There are five ice categories (plus one
additional category for open water), and the lower bounds of the ice
thickness for these categories are set to 0.3, 0.6, 1, 2.5, and 5 m. The
momentum equation for sea ice dynamics is solved using
elastic–viscous–plastic rheology (Hunke and Dukowicz, 1997). The strength of
the ice per unit thickness and concentration is set at 2.0×104 N m-2, and the ice–ocean drag coefficient is set to 0.02. The
surface albedo for bare ice surface is 0.85 (0.65) for the visible
(infrared) radiation. The surface albedo in snow-covered areas is 0.95
(0.80) when the surface temperature is lower than -5∘C for
the visible (infrared) radiation, and it is 0.85 (0.65) when the temperature
is 0 ∘C. Note that the albedo changes linearly between -5 and 0 ∘C. These parameter values listed
here are the same as those listed in MIROC5.
Boundary conditions
A set of external forcing data recommended by the CMIP6 protocol is used.
The historical solar irradiance spectra, greenhouse gas concentrations,
anthropogenic aerosol emissions, and biomass burning emissions are given by
Matthes et al. (2017), Meinshausen et al. (2017), Hoesly et al. (2018), and
van Marle et al. (2017), respectively. The concentrations of greenhouse
gases averaged globally and annually are given to MIROC6. Radiative forcing
of stratospheric aerosols due to volcanic eruptions is computed by
vertically integrating extinction coefficients for each radiation band,
which are provided by Thomason et al. (2019), in the model layers above the
tropopause. Three-dimensional atmospheric concentrations of historical ozone
(O3) are produced by the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (Hegglin et
al., 2019; the data are available at
http://blogs.reading.ac.uk/ccmi/forcing-databases-in-support-of-cmip6/, last access: 6 July 2016).
Three-dimensional concentrations of the OH radical, hydrogen peroxide
(H2O2), and nitrate (NO3) are precalculated by a chemical
atmospheric model from Sudo et al. (2002). As precursors of secondary organic
aerosol, emission data on terpenes and isoprene provided by the Global
Emissions Inventory Activity (Guenther et al., 1995) are normally used,
although simulated emissions from the land ecosystem model of Ito and
Inatmoni (2012) are also used alternatively.
For specifying the soil types and area fractions of natural vegetation and
cropland on grids of the land surface component, the harmonized land use
dataset (Hurtt et al., 2011), Center for Sustainability and the Global
Environment global potential vegetation dataset (Ramankutty and Foley,
1999), and the dataset provided by the International Satellite Land Surface
Climatology Project Initiative I (Sellers et al., 1996) are used. These
datasets are also used in prescribing background reflectance at the land
surface. Leaf area index data are prepared based on the moderate-resolution
imaging spectroradiometer leaf area index products of Myneni et al. (2002).
The forcing dataset used for the preindustrial control simulation is
basically composed of data for the year 1850, which are included in the
abovementioned historical dataset. The stratospheric aerosols and solar
irradiance in the preindustrial simulation are given as monthly climatology
averaged in 1850–2014 and in 1850–1873, respectively. The total solar
irradiance is about 1361 W m-2, and the global mean concentrations of
CO2, methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are 284.32 ppm,
808.25 ppb, and 273.02 ppb, respectively.
Spin-up and tuning procedures
Firstly, the stand-alone ocean component of MIROC6, which includes the
sea ice processes, is integrated from the initial motionless state with the
observed temperature and salinity distribution of the Polar Science Center
hydrographic climatology (Steele et al., 2001). Ocean model coastline
geometry and bottom bathymetry are specified based on horizontal
interpolation of the land and seafloor dataset of ETOPO5 (National
Geophysical Data Center, 1993). The ocean component is spun up for 1000 years by the monthly climatological surface fluxes of Röske (2006). An
acceleration method from Bryan (1984) is used in the spin-up stage in order to
obtain a thermally and dynamically quasi-steady state. After the spin-up,
additional integration for 200 years is performed without the acceleration
method. By analyzing the last 50-year-long data from the stand-alone ocean
component, the monthly climatology of typical variables (e.g., zonal mean
temperature and salinity in several basins, volume transports across major
straits and archipelagos, meridional overturning circulation, and sea ice
distributions) is compared with observations. Once the configuration of the
ocean component is frozen, the land–sea distribution and land–sea area
ratios on the atmospheric and land surface model grids are determined
according to the coastline geometry of the ocean component, after which the
atmospheric and the land surface components are coupled with the ocean
component. Surface topography in the atmospheric and land surface component
is also made using the ETOPO5 dataset. Note that the horizontal grid
arrangement of the land surface model is exactly the same as the atmospheric
component. The coupling interval among the sub-models is 1 h. An initial
condition of the ocean component in MIROC6 is given by the stand-alone ocean
experiment, and those of the atmosphere and land are taken from an arbitrary
year of the preindustrial control run of MIROC5.
After coupling the sub-models, climate model tuning is done under the
preindustrial boundary conditions. Conventionally, the climate models of
our modeling community are retuned in coupled modes after stand-alone
sub-model tuning. This is because the reproducibility of climatic mean state and
internal climate variations is not necessarily guaranteed in climate models
with the same parameters determined in stand-alone sub-model tuning, which
is particularly the case in the tropical climate. In our tuning procedures
described below, many of the 10-year-long climate model runs are conducted
with different parameter values. There are numerous parameters associated
with physical parameterizations, whose upper–lower bounds are constrained by
empirical or physical reasoning. The main parameters used in our tuning
procedures are chosen by referring to a perturbed parameter ensemble set made
by Shiogama et al. (2012) in which parameter sensitivity to cloud radiative
processes is examined. The impact of parameter tuning on the present climate
is also discussed by Ogura et al. (2017), focusing on
top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation and clouds. Any objective and optimal
methods for parameter tuning are not used in our modeling group, and the
tuning procedures are like those in other climate modeling groups as
summarized in Hourdin et al. (2017).
In the first model tuning step, climatology, seasonal progression, and
internal climate variability in the tropical coupled system are tuned so that departures from observations or reanalysis datasets are reduced.
Here, it should be noted that representation of the tropical system in
MIROC6 is sensitive to the parameters for convection and planetary boundary
layer processes. Specifically, parameters of reference height for cumulus
precipitation, efficiency of the cumulus entrainment of the surrounding
environment, and maximum cumulus updraft velocity at the cumulus base are
used to tune the strength of the equatorial trade wind, the climatological position
and intensity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and South
Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), and the interannual variability of
the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In particular, the parameter for
the cumulus entrainment is known as a controlling factor of ENSO in MIROC5
(Watanabe et al., 2011). Summertime precipitation in the western tropical
Pacific that is characteristic of tropical intra-seasonal oscillations is tuned
by using the parameter for shallow convection describing the partitioning of
turbulent kinetic energy between horizontal and vertical motions at the
sub-cloud layer inversion. Next, the wintertime midlatitude westerly jets
and the stationary waves in the troposphere are tuned using the parameters
of the orographic gravity wave drag and the hyper-diffusion of momentum. The
parameters of the hyper-diffusion and the non-orographic gravity wave drag
are also used when tuning stratospheric circulation of the polar vortex and
QBO. Finally, the radiation budget at the TOA is tuned, primarily using the
parameters for the auto-conversion process so that excess downward radiation
can be minimized and maintained closer to 0.0 W m-2. The surface albedos
for bare sea ice and snow-covered sea ice are set to higher values than in
observations (see Sect. 2.3) in order to avoid underestimating the
summertime sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean due to excess downward
shortwave radiation in this region. In addition, parameter tuning for the
total radiative forcing associated with aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud
interactions is done. So that the total radiative forcing can be
closer to the estimate of -0.9 W m-2 (IPCC, 2013; negative value
indicates cooling) with an uncertainty range of -1.9 to -0.1 W m-2,
parameters of cloud microphysics and the aerosol transport module, such as
the timescale for cloud droplet nucleation, in-cloud properties of aerosol
removal by precipitation, and the minimum threshold for the number concentration of
cloud droplets, are perturbed. To determine a suitable parameter set,
several pairs of a present-day run under the anthropogenic aerosol emissions
at the year 2000 and a preindustrial run are conducted. A pair of
present and preindustrial runs has exactly the same parameters, and
differences of tropospheric radiation between two runs are considered
anthropogenic radiative forcing. Note that MIROC6 in a coupled mode is used
in this tuning procedure, and thus the sea surface temperature (SST) is not
fixed. The estimated radiative forcing here is not strictly the same as the
effective radiative forcing estimated in IPCC (2013). However, by the
present tuning procedure, the global mean surface air temperature (SAT)
change after the mid-nineteenth century is well reproduced in the historical runs
by MIROC6 (details are discussed in Sect. 4). As mentioned above,
the reproducibility of the global mean SAT is not a tuning goal but is a typical
metric that reflects results of the parameter tunings for individual
processes of convection, dynamics, and radiative forcing.
After fixing the model parameters, the climate model is spun up for 2000 years. During the first several hundred years, waters contained in the land
surface are drained to the ocean via river runoff, which leads to a temporal
weakening of the meridional overturning circulation in the ocean and a
rising of the global mean sea level. After the global hydrological cycle
reaches an equilibrium state, the strengths of the meridional overturning
circulation recover and keep a quasi-steady state. The abovementioned
processes take about 1000 years, after which an additional 1000-year-long
integration is performed in order to obtain a thermally and dynamically
quasi-steady ocean state.
Figure 3 shows the time series of the global mean quantities after the
spin-up. The labeled year in Fig. 3 indicates the elapsed year after the
spin-up duration of 2000 years. The linear trend of the global mean SAT is 9.5×10-3 K per century and is much smaller than the observed value of
about 0.62 K per century in the twentieth century, indicating that there is no
significant drift and the global mean SAT is in a quasi-steady state. While
the global mean SST is in a quasi-steady state (linear trend of 7.0×10-3 K per century), the global mean ocean temperature shows a
larger trend of 6.8×10-3 K per century in the first 500 years
than that of 1.3×10-3 K per century in the later period. In the
later sections, the 200-year-long data between the 500th and 699th years are
analyzed.
(a) Time series of the global mean SAT (solid) and the TOA
radiation budget (dashed; upward positive). (b) Same as (a), but for the
global mean SST (solid) and the ocean temperature through the full water
column (dashed).
The trend of the global mean ocean temperature in the later period suggests
slight but continuous warming of the deep ocean. The radiation budget at the
TOA is 1.1 W m-2 downward on average (linear trend of 9.5×10-3 K per century), and the net heat input at the sea surface is 0.32 W m-2. The deep ocean warming is explained by the net heat input. Note
that there is about 0.78 W m-2 of inconsistency between the TOA radiation
budget and the ocean heat uptake. This heat energy inconsistency is due to
internal energy associated with precipitation, water vapor, and river
runoff not being taken account in the atmospheric and land surface component in
MIROC6, as well as the fact that these waters with no temperature information implicitly set
their temperature to the SST when they flow or fall into the ocean.
Perpetual melting of the prescribed Antarctic ice sheet with invariant ice
thickness, which occurs due to the warm SAT bias in the Antarctic
region (details will be discussed in Sect. 3.1.3), is also a cause of the
heat energy inconsistency.
Results of preindustrial simulation
Representations of climatic mean field and internal climate variability in
MIROC6 (Tatebe and Watanabe, 2018a) are evaluated in comparison with MIROC5 and observations. The
200-year-long data of the preindustrial control simulation by MIROC5 are used.
The observations and reanalysis datasets used in the comparison are listed
in Table 1.
Summary of observation and reanalysis datasets used as
references in the present paper.
DatasetDataReferenceperiod (year)CERES (edition 2.8)2001–2013Loeb et al. (2009)ISCCPClimatologyZhang et al. (2004)ERA-Interim1980–2009Dee et al. (2011)GPCPv21980–2009Adler et al. (2003)EASE-Grid 2.01980–2009Brodzik and Armstrong (2013)ProjD1980–2009Ishii et al. (2003)SODA1980–2009Carton and Giese (2008)SSM/I1980–2009Cavarieli et al. (1991)NOAA OLR1974–2013Liebmann and Smith (1996)COBE-SST2–SLP21900–2013Hirahara et al. (2014)HadCRUT1850–2015Morice et al. (2012)
Here, the model climatology in the preindustrial simulations is compared
with observations in recent decades. Because observations are obtained
concurrently with the progress of global warming due to increasing
anthropogenic radiative forcing, the model climate under preindustrial
conditions may not be adequate for use when making comparisons with recent
observations. However, the root mean squared (RMS) errors of typical
variables (e.g., the global mean SAT) in the climate models with respect to
observations are much larger than the RMS differences between the model
climatology in the preindustrial simulation and those in the last
30-year-long period in the historical simulations. Therefore, the differences between the time periods for which the climatology is defined are not a significant concern in
comparisons among the climate models and observations.
ClimatologyAtmosphere and land surface
First, model systematic biases in radiation at the TOA are evaluated
because they reflect model deficiencies in cloud radiative processes that
contribute to a large degree of uncertainty in climate modeling. Figure 4
shows annual mean biases in radiative fluxes at the TOA in MIROC6 and MIROC5
with respect to the recent Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System
(CERES) estimate (Loeb et al., 2009; the data are available at
https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/, last access: 12 June 2018). At the top right of each panel, a global mean
(GM) value and a root mean squared error (RMSE) with respect to observations
are written. In the present paper, RMSE is computed without model and
observed global mean quantities unless otherwise noted.
Annual mean TOA radiative fluxes in MIROC6 (a, c, e) and
MIROC5 (b, d, f). Upward is defined as positive. Net shortwave and
longwave radiative fluxes and the sum of the two fluxes are denoted as OSR,
OLR, and NET, respectively. Colors indicate errors with respect to
observations (CERES) and contours denote values in each model. Note that a
different color scale is used for longwave radiation. The global mean
values and root mean squared errors are indicated by GM and RMSE,
respectively. In the present paper, RMSE is computed without model and
observed global mean quantities unless otherwise noted.
Persistent overestimates of net shortwave radiative flux and the sum of net
shortwave and net longwave fluxes over low-latitude oceans in MIROC5 are
significantly reduced in MIROC6. Hereafter, net shortwave radiation, net longwave radiation, and their
sum are denoted as OSR, OLR, and NET, respectively, for simplicity.
As described in Ogura et al. (2017), since parameter tuning cannot eliminate
the abovementioned excess upward radiation, it is suggested that
implementing a shallow convective parameterization is required in order to
reduce the biases. Figure 5 shows annual mean moistening rates associated
with deep and shallow convection at the 850 hPa pressure level in MIROC6.
Moistening due to shallow convection occurs mainly over the low-latitude
oceans, especially the eastern subtropical Pacific and the western Atlantic
and Indian oceans. These active regions of shallow convection occur
separately from regions with active deep convection in the western tropical
Pacific and the ITCZ. The clear separation of the two convection types is
consistent with satellite-based observations (Williams and Tselioudis,
2007). Owing to the shallow convective process that mixes the humid air in
the planetary boundary layer with the dry air in the free troposphere,
low-level cloud cover over the low-latitude oceans is better represented in
MIROC6 than in MIROC5. Figure 6 shows annual mean biases in cloud covers
with respect to the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project
(ISCCP; Rossow et al., 1996; Zhang et al., 2004; the data are available at
https://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/, last access: 26 February 2018). An overestimate of low-level cloud cover over
the low-latitude oceans in MIROC5 (Fig. 6b) is apparently reduced in MIROC6
(Fig. 6a), which results in smaller NET and OSR biases (Fig. 4). RMS error in low-level cloud cover in MIROC6 is 9 % lower than that
in MIROC5.
Annual mean moistening rate associated with (a) deep convection
and (b) shallow convection in MIROC6 at the 850 hPa pressure level.
Same as Fig. 4, but for cloud cover in MIROC6 (a, c, e) and
MIROC5 (b, d, f). Low-, middle-, and high-level cloud cover is
aligned from the top to the bottom. The tops for low-, middle-, and
high-level clouds are defined to exist below the 680 hPa, between the 680
and 440 hPa, and above the 440 hPa pressure levels, respectively. The
unit is nondimensional. ISCCP climatology is used as observations.
OSR in the midlatitudes is also better represented in MIROC6 than in
MIROC5. Zonally distributed downward OSR bias in MIROC5 is reduced or
becomes a relatively small upward bias in MIROC6 (Fig. 4c, d). This
difference in the OSR bias is commonly found in both hemispheres. Cloud
cover at middle and high levels is larger in MIROC6 over the subarctic
North Pacific, North Atlantic, and the Southern Ocean (Fig. 6c–f), while
low-level cloud cover over the same regions is smaller in MIROC6 than in
MIROC5 over the same regions (Fig. 6a, b). The smaller low-level cloud cover
in MIROC6 is inconsistent with the larger upward OSR bias in MIROC6. The
wintertime midlatitude westerlies are stronger and are located more
poleward in MIROC6 than in MIROC5. Correspondingly, the activity of sub-weekly
disturbances in the midlatitudes is strengthened in MIROC6 (details are
described later). These differences in the midlatitude atmospheric
circulation between MIROC6 and MIROC5 lead to an enhanced poleward moist
air transport from the subtropics to the subarctic region, which could
result in an increase in the mid- and high-level cloud cover in MIROC6, as
reported in previous modeling studies (e.g., Bodas-Salcedo et al., 2012; Williams et al., 2013). Consequently, the downward OSR bias in the
midlatitudes is smaller in MIROC6 than in MIROC5. In polar regions, both
biases in OSR and NET remain the same as in MIROC5.
Systematic bias in the outgoing longwave radiative flux (hereafter OLR) is
worse in MIROC6 than in MIROC5 because MIROC6 tends to underestimate OLR
over almost the entire global domain, except for Antarctica (Fig. 4e, f). The
global mean of the high-level cloud cover in MIROC6 is larger than in MIROC5
by 0.04 (Fig. 6e, f), which is consistent with the smaller OLR in MIROC6. The
increased moisture transport due to the strengthening of the westerlies and
sub-weekly disturbances can partly explain the increase in the midlatitude
high-level clouds in MIROC6, but high-level cloud cover is also larger in
the low latitudes. Hirota et al. (2018) reported that moistening of the free
troposphere due to shallow convection creates favorable conditions for
atmospheric instabilities that lead to the resultant activation of deep
convection at the low latitudes. Such processes may contribute to the
inferior representation of OLR in MIROC6.
Next, we will discuss the global budget of the radiative fluxes and the
RMS errors between models and observations. Note that only deviations from
the global means are considered when calculating RMS errors. As shown
in the upper right of Fig. 4a and b, the global mean (RMS errors) NETs are
-1.11 (12.7) W m-2 in MIROC6 and -0.98 (15.9) W m-2 in MIROC5,
respectively, and these values are consistent with the observed value of
-0.81 W m-2 (CERES; Loeb et al., 2009). However, the observed value is
estimated in the present-day condition. Ideally, the model value in the
preindustrial condition should be 0 W m-2 and is in the marginally
acceptable range. If NET is divided into OSR and OLR, so-called error
compensation becomes apparent. The global means of OSR (OLR) are -231.3
(230.2) W m-2 in MIROC6 and -237.6 (236.6) W m-2 in MIROC5 (Fig. 4c–f). The observed global means of OSR and OLR are
-240.5 and 239.7 W m-2. Biases in the global mean OSR (OLR)
with respect to observations are 9.2 (-9.5) W m-2 in MIROC6 and 2.9
(-3.1) W m-2 in MIROC5. Thus, the global mean OSR and OLR
in MIROC6 are worse than those in MIROC5. Further division of OSR and OLR
into cloud radiative forcing and clear-sky shortwave (longwave) radiative
components shows that shortwave cloud radiative forcing is dominant on the
biases in radiative fluxes. The biases in the global mean shortwave
(longwave) cloud radiative forcing with respect to observations are 12.0
(6.7) W m-2 in MIROC6 and -4.0 (-0.2) W m-2 in MIROC5.
The global radiation budget in MIROC6 is inferior to that in MIROC5, while
the reproducibility of the climatic means of typical model variables, other than
radiative fluxes, and internal variations are better simulated in MIROC6
(details are shown later). As described in Sect. 2.5, the intensive tuning
by perturbing model parameters is done by focusing on the reproducibility of
climatic means, internal variations, and radiative forcing due to
anthropogenic aerosols. During this procedure, the global radiation budget
is traded off. On the other hand, RMS errors in NET, OSR, and OLR are 12.7,
16.2, and 6.3 W m-2 in MIROC6 and 15.9, 18.9, and 6.8 W m-2 in
MIROC5, respectively, thereby indicating that the errors in MIROC6 have been
reduced by 7 % to 20 %. This is also the case for shortwave and
longwave cloud radiative forcings, for which the corresponding errors have been
reduced by 17 % and 13 %, respectively. Taken together, these results
show that the spatial patterns of the radiative fluxes are better simulated
in MIROC6 than in MIROC5.
The improvement in spatial radiation patterns, especially in low-latitude
OSR, is explained primarily by the implementation of shallow convective
processes, which results in a moister free troposphere in MIROC6 than in
MIROC5. Figure 7a and b show zonal mean biases in annual mean specific humidity
with respect to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Interim Reanalysis (ERA-I; Dee et al., 2011; the data are available at
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/archive-datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-interim, last access: 1 June 2019).
Dry bias at 30∘ S–30∘ N, which occurs
persistently in MIROC5, are largely reduced in MIROC6 owing to vertical
mixing at the interface of the planetary boundary layer and the free
troposphere. On the other hand, moist bias below the 600 hPa pressure level
in the midlatitudes is somewhat worse in MIROC6 than in MIROC5. Shallow
convection also contributes to the improvement of precipitation in the low
latitudes. Figure 8 shows global maps for climatological precipitation in
boreal winter (December–February) and summer (June–August). The second
version of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP; the data are
available at https://precip.gsfc.nasa.gov/, last access: 21 December 2015) Monthly Precipitation Analysis
(Adler et al., 2003) is used for the observations. While MIROC5 suffers from
an underestimate of summertime precipitation over the western tropical Pacific,
the underestimate is largely reduced in MIROC6 (Fig. 8d, f). The increase in
precipitation is associated with deep convection because the moister free
troposphere in MIROC6 is more favorable for the occurrence of deep
convection (Hirota et al., 2018). On the other hand, the model representation
of precipitation in MIROC6 is not necessarily alleviated other than the
western tropical Pacific. For example, the overestimate of wintertime
precipitation over the Indian Ocean and the midlatitude North Pacific is
worse in MIROC6 than in MIROC5.
Annual and zonal mean specific humidity (a, b), temperature (c, d),
and zonal wind (e, f) in
MIROC6 (a, c, e) and MIROC5 (b, d, f).
Colors indicate errors with respect to observations (ERA-I) and contours
denote values in each model.
Precipitation in boreal winter (December–February; a, c, e)
and summer (June–August; b, d, f) in observations (a, b; GPCP), MIROC6
(c, d), and MIROC5 (e, f). Areas with precipitation less than
3 mm d-1 are not colored.
Zonal mean biases in annual mean air temperature and zonal wind velocity are
also better represented in MIROC6 than in MIROC5 (Figs. 7c-f). The upper
stratospheric warm bias at 50∘ S–50∘ N in
MIROC5 is significantly reduced in MIROC6. The model top of MIROC6 is
located at the 0.004 hPa pressure level and there are 42 vertical layers
above the 50 hPa pressure level, while the model top of MIROC5 is placed at
the 3 hPa pressure level. As a result, there are significant differences in
stratospheric circulation between the models. As shown in the annual mean
mass streamfunction calculated using zonal mean meridional winds (Fig. 9),
an upward wind continuing from the low-latitude troposphere to the
stratosphere is stronger in MIROC6 than in MIROC5. An
increased upward advection of the temperature minimum around the tropopause
at 30∘ S–30∘ N may lead to a reduction of
warm temperature bias in the stratosphere, which is significant in MIROC5.
Correspondingly, the stratospheric westerly bias at low latitudes of MIROC5
is also considerably alleviated in MIROC6. Note that the atmospheric O3
concentration data used in MIROC5 are different from those in MIROC6, and the
concentration in the stratosphere is higher than the data used in MIROC6.
About 25 % of the abovementioned reduction in the stratospheric warm
biases is explained by the smaller absorption of shortwave radiation by
O3. Note that the zonal mean temperature bias in Fig. 7c is smaller
when the climatological mean temperature from 1980 to 2009 in a historical
simulation is evaluated against observations because of the known
stratospheric cooling with increased greenhouse gases and reduced O3
concentrations.
Annual mean mass streamfunctions in (a) MIROC6 and
(b) MIROC5.
Contour interval is 0.3(0.025)×1010 kg s-1 below
(above) the 100 hPa pressure level. Negative values are denoted by dashed
contours, and the horizontal dashed lines indicate the 100 hPa pressure
level.
The zonal means of the air temperature and zonal wind in MIROC6 are also
better simulated in the middle and high latitudes. A pair of easterly and
westerly biases in MIROC5, which is in the troposphere of the Northern
Hemisphere, is associated with a weaker midlatitude westerly jet and its
southward shift with respect to observations. The pair of biases is
reduced in MIROC6, thereby suggesting that a strengthening and northward
shift of the westerly jet occur in MIROC6. Indeed, as shown in Fig. 10, the meridional contrast of high and low biases at the 500 hPa pressure level (Z500) along the wintertime westerly jet is weaker in
MIROC6 than in MIROC5. The latitudes with the maximal meridional gradient of
Z500 are located further northward in MIROC6 than in MIROC5, especially over
the North Atlantic. Correspondingly, wintertime storm track activity (STA),
which is defined as an 8 d high-pass-filtered eddy meridional temperature
flux at the 850 hPa pressure level, is stronger over the North Pacific and
Atlantic in MIROC6 than in MIROC5 (see Fig. 11) and is
accompanied by an associated increase in precipitation, especially in the
North Pacific (Fig. 8c, e). In the stratosphere above the 10 hPa pressure
level, the polar night jet is reasonably captured in MIROC6, although the
westerly is somewhat overestimated at 30–60∘ N. Also, in the Southern Hemisphere, representation
of the tropospheric westerly and the polar night jets is better in MIROC6
than in MIROC5, and the easterly bias centered at 60∘ S in
the troposphere is clearly reduced in MIROC6. Although causality is unclear,
the warm air temperature bias above the tropopause to the south of
60∘ S is smaller in MIROC6 than in MIROC5.
Same as Fig. 4, but for the wintertime 500 hPa pressure level in
MIROC6 (a, c) and MIROC5 (b, d). Maps for boreal and austral
winter are shown in (a, b) and (c, d), respectively. ERA-I is used as observations.
Wintertime storm track activity (STA) in observations (a, d),
MIROC6 (b, e), and MIROC5 (c, f). STA is defined as
8 d high-pass-filtered eddy meridional temperature flux at the 850 hPa
pressure level. Maps for boreal and austral winter are shown in (a–c) and (d–f), respectively.
ERA-I is used as observations.
The enhanced wintertime STA in MIROC6 leads to a strengthening of the Ferrel
circulation in the Northern Hemisphere and a broadening of its meridional
width. As shown in Fig. 9, the northern edge of the Ferrel cell is located
further northward in MIROC6 than in MIROC5. Because the Ferrel cell is a
thermally indirect circulation driven primarily by eddy temperature and
momentum fluxes, the stronger STA in MIROC6 possibly causes the Ferrel cell
differences between the two models. Associated with the northward extension
of the Ferrel cell, the upward wind between the Ferrel cell and the polar
cell centered at 65∘ N is stronger in MIROC6 than in MIROC5
and the meridional width of the polar cell is smaller. Also, in the Southern
Hemisphere, the upward wind around 60∘ S at the southern
edge of the Ferrel cell is stronger in MIROC6 than in MIROC5.
Correspondingly, high sea level pressure (SLP) biases in the polar region in
MIROC5 are significantly reduced in MIROC6 (figures are omitted) and RMS
errors with respect to observations (ERA-I) are decreased by 30 %.
Meanwhile, in the stratosphere, anticlockwise (clockwise) circulation to
the north (south) of 50∘ N (S) is stronger and extends
further upward in MIROC6 than in MIROC5. This circulation seems to continue
from the troposphere into the stratosphere, thereby implying that more
active troposphere–stratosphere interactions associated with wave coupling
exist in MIROC6. Further details will be described later, focusing on the
occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings.
Parameterizations of SSNOWD (Liston, 2004; Nitta et al., 2014) and a wetland
due to snowmelt water have been newly implemented into MIROC6 (Nitta et
al., 2017). In comparison of MIROC6 with MIROC5, it can be seen that the
former parameterization brings about significant improvement in the Northern
Hemisphere snow cover fractions from the early to the late winter (Fig. 12).
Compared with observations of the Northern Hemisphere EASE-Grid 2.0 (Brodzik
and Armstrong, 2013; the data are available at
https://nsidc.org/data/ease/, last access: 1 January 2013), the distribution of the snow cover fractions
is more realistic in MIROC6 than MIROC5, especially where and when the snow
water equivalent is relatively small (e.g., middle and high latitudes in
November, over Siberia in February). Note that no clear improvement is found
in May. This is because the newly implemented SSNOWD represents hysteresis
in the relationship between snow water equivalent and snow cover fraction in both the
accumulation and ablation seasons. MIROC6 underestimates the snow cover
fraction in the partially snow-covered regions and overestimates it on the
Tibetan Plateau and in some parts of China. We note that meteorological
(e.g., precipitation or temperature) phenomena might affect these biases,
but further investigation will be necessary to identify their causes.
Nevertheless, in spite of those discrepancies, it can be said that the
seasonal changes in the snow cover fraction are better simulated in MIROC6
than in MIROC5 (Fig. 12j).
Snow cover fractions for observations (a, d, g), MIROC6 (b, e, h),
and MIROC5 (c, f, j). Maps in November, February, and May are
aligned from the left to the right. The unit is nondimensional. Areas where
snow cover fractions are less than 0.01 are masked. “Ave” and “corr” in the
panels indicate spatial averages and correlation coefficients between
observations and models over the land surface in the Northern Hemisphere,
respectively. Time series in (j) shows the temporal rate of
change of the monthly spatial averages. The snow cover dataset of the Northern
Hemisphere EASE-Grid 2.0 is used as observations.
Ocean
Next, we evaluate the climatological fields of the ocean hydrographic
structure, meridional overturning circulation (MOC), and sea ice
distribution. The zonal mean potential temperature and salinity are
displayed in Figs. 13 and 14, respectively. Both MIROC6 and MIROC5 capture
the general features of the observed climatological hydrography (ProjD;
Ishii et al., 2003). However, the potential temperatures in the deep and
bottom layers to the south of 60∘ S in the two models are
warmer than observations because of insufficient formation and sinking of
cold and dense water due to intense surface cooling around Antarctica (Figs. 13a–c and 14a–c). Such a warm temperature bias associated with deepwater
formation is also found at the northern high latitudes of the Atlantic sector
(Figs. 13a–c). By horizontal advection of the warm temperature biases
associated with the Pacific and Atlantic MOC, the model temperatures in
deep layers apart from polar regions are also warmer than in observations.
The warm potential temperature bias in the deep layer is worse in MIROC6
than in MIROC5 in both the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, and the warm bias
influences the subsurface and the intermediate layers above the 3000 m
depth, which might be attributed to the excess ocean heat uptake and longer
integration time in MIROC6 than in MIROC5 (the spin-up duration of MIROC6 is
2000 years and that of MIROC5 is about 1000 years). Also, the
low-salinity bias below the 2000 m depth is worse in MIROC6 than in MIROC5,
especially in the Pacific sector (Fig. 14e, f). This worsening can be
explained by the excess supply of the freshwater in the Southern Ocean and
weaker northward intrusion of the less saline water in MIROC6.
Annual mean potential temperature (a, b, c; unit is
∘C) and salinity (d, e, f; psu) in the Atlantic sector for
observations (a, d), MIROC6 (b, e), and MIROC5 (c, f).
Colors indicate errors with respect to observations (ProjD) and contours denote model values
in (b, e) and (c, f).
Same as Fig. 13, but for the Pacific sector.
In the Arctic Ocean, the halocline above the upper 500 m of depth is sharper
and more realistic in MIROC6 than in MIROC5 and the high-salinity bias below
the 500 m depth in MIROC5 is alleviated in MIROC6 (Fig. 13e, f) because, as
described in Sect. 2.3, there are many more vertical levels in the surface
and subsurface layers of MIROC6. In addition, vertical diffusivity in the
Arctic Ocean is set to smaller values in MIROC6 than in MIROC5, and the
turbulent kinetic energy input induced by surface wave breaking, as a
function of the sea ice concentration in each grid cell, is reduced in
MIROC6, as shown in Komuro (2014). In the North Pacific, the southward
intrusion of North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) around the 1000 m depth
retreats northward in MIROC6. Strong tide-induced vertical mixing of seawater is observed along the Kuril Islands (e.g., Katsumata et al., 2004).
The locally enhanced tide-induced mixing is known to reinforce the southward
intrusion of the Oyashio and associated water mass transport from the
subarctic to subtropical North Pacific and to feed the salinity minimum of
NPIW (Nakamura et al., 2004; Tatebe and Yasuda, 2004). Hence, NPIW
reproducibility is better in MIROC5, in which enhanced tidal mixing is
considered, than in MIROC6. Because we encountered significant uncertainty in
implementing the tidal mixing, we decided to stop implementing it in
the development phase of MIROC6 at the expense of NPIW reproducibility.
The annual mean potential temperature and zonal currents along the Equator
in MIROC6 are better simulated in MIROC6 than in MIROC5 (Fig. 15).
Relatively cold water below the equatorial thermocline is upwelled in
MIROC6, especially in the eastern tropical Pacific, which leads to a
strengthening of the vertical temperature gradient across the thermocline.
The eastward speed of the Equatorial Undercurrent in MIROC6 is over 80 cm s-1, and is closer to the products of Simple Ocean Data Assimilation
(SODA; Carton and Giese, 2008; the data are available at
http://www.soda.umd.edu/, last access: 15 February 2019) than in MIROC5. These improvements are mainly attributed
to the higher vertical resolution of MIROC6 in the surface and subsurface
layers. However, the thermocline depths in the western tropical Pacific are
still larger in the models than in observations and are attributed to the
stronger trade winds in the models. When both MIROC6 and MIROC5 are
executed as stand-alone AGCMs with the prescribed SST obtained from
observations, the an overestimate of the equatorial trade winds also appears
due to overestimate of the upward winds over the maritime continent
associated with deep cumulus convection and the resultant strengthening of
the Walker circulation over the equatorial Pacific. Better parameterizing
deep cumulus convection in the models would be required for a better
representation of the equatorial trade winds and thus oceanic states.
Annual mean climatology of potential temperature (∘C;
colors) and zonal current speed (cm s-1; contours) along the Equator
(1∘ S–1∘ N) in (a) observations (ProjD and SODA),
(b) MIROC6, and (c) MIROC5.
Figure 16 displays annual mean Atlantic and Pacific MOC. In the Atlantic,
two deep circulation cells associated with North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW;
upper cell) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW; lower cell) are found in both
of the models. NADW transport across 26.5∘ N is 17.2 (17.6) Sv (1 Sv =106 m3 s-1) in MIROC6 (MIROC5). These values are
consistent with the observational estimate of 17.2 Sv (McCarthy et al., 2015). RMS amplitudes of NADW transport are about 0.9 Sv in MIROC6 and 1.1 Sv in MIROC5 on longer than interannual
timescales. These are smaller than the observed amplitude of 1.6 Sv in 2005–2014. Because
observations include the weakening trend of the Atlantic MOC due to
global warming, they can be larger than the model variability under
preindustrial conditions. In the Pacific Ocean, both the models have the
deep circulation associated with Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW), but the
northward transport of CDW across 10∘ S is 8.6 Sv in MIROC6,
which is slightly larger than 7.5 Sv in MIROC5. Although these model values
are somewhat smaller than observations, they are within the uncertainty
range of observations (Talley et al., 2003; Kawabe and Fujio, 2010).
Annual mean meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic (a, b)
and the Indo-Pacific sectors (c, d) in MIROC6 (a, c) and
MIROC5 (b, d). The unit is the sverdrup (Sv; ≡106 m3 s-1).
Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentrations are shown in Fig. 17. Here, it
can be seen that both the March and September sea ice distributions in
MIROC6 resemble the satellite-based observation (SSM/I; Cavarieli et al., 1991; the data are available at https://nsidc.org/, last access: 29 April 2019). In general, the spatial
patterns of the models resemble the observations. Sea ice areas in March
(September) are 12.4 (6.1), 13.0 (6.9), and 14.9 (5.7) million square kilometers in
MIROC6, MIROC5, and observations, respectively. The model estimates are
smaller (larger) in March (September) than in observations. The
underestimate in March is still found in MIROC6 and is attributed to the
underestimate of sea ice area in the Sea of Okhotsk and the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, even though the sea ice area in the former region is better
simulated in MIROC6 than in MIROC5. Meanwhile, the eastward retreat of the
sea ice in the Barents Sea is better represented in MIROC6 than in MIROC5.
The overestimates in September in the models are due to the model
climatology being defined under preindustrial conditions, while
observations are taken in present-day conditions of 1980–2009 when a
rapid decreasing trend of summertime sea ice area (including a few events of
drastic decreases) is ongoing (e.g., Comiso et al., 2008). Note that the
model September sea ice area in 1980–2009 from historical simulations is
smaller than the observations, and the sea ice area does not show
a drastic year-to-year sea ice decrease with comparable amplitude with
observations. The underestimate of the mean September sea ice area in MIROC6
might be attributed to slightly more rapid warming of the Arctic climate in
MIROC6 than in observations. On the other hand, the modeled sea ice areas in
the Southern Ocean are unrealistically smaller than in observations.
Southern Hemisphere sea ice areas in March (September) are 0.1 (3.4), 0.2
(5.2), and 5.0 (18.4) million square kilometers in MIROC6, MIROC5, and observations,
respectively. Since there are no significant differences between the two
models, the spatial maps for the sea ice area in the Southern Hemisphere are
omitted.
Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentrations in March (a, b, c) and
September (d, e, f) for observations (a, d), MIROC6 b, e),
and MIROC5 (c, f). The unit is nondimensional. Satellite-based
sea ice concentration data of the SSM/I are used as observations.
Figure 18 shows the global maps of annual mean sea level height relative to
the geoid. The absolute dynamic height values provided by Archiving,
Validation, and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic (AVISO; Rio et al., 2014) data are used as observed sea level height (the data are available at https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/home.html, last access: 20 June 2019). Overall, oceanic gyre
structures in the two models are consistent with observations. Although
representation of the gyres in MIROC6 remains generally the same as in
MIROC5, there are a few improvements in the North Pacific and the North
Atlantic. The midlatitude westerly in MIROC6 is stronger and is shifted
further northward than in MIROC5 (Fig. 10), which results in the
strengthening of the subtropical gyres, northward shifts of the western
boundary currents, and their extensions. In particular, the current speed of
the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current is faster in MIROC6 than in
MIROC5, and the contours emanating from the North Atlantic reach the Barents
Sea in MIROC6. A corresponding increase in warm water transport from the
North Atlantic to the Barents Sea leads to sea ice melting and an eastward
retreat of the wintertime sea ice there in MIROC6 (Fig. 17a–c). An
improvement in MIROC6 is also found in the Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC)
in the North Pacific along 20∘ N. As reported in Kubokawa
and Inui (1999), the low-potential-vorticity water associated with a
wintertime mixed layer deepening in the western boundary current region is
transported southward in the subsurface layer, and it pushes up isopycnal
surfaces around 25∘ N. Thus, the eastward-flowing STCC is
induced around 25∘ N. Although both of the models show the
wintertime mixed layer deepening, the ocean stratification along
160∘ E is weaker in MIROC6 than in MIROC5 (not shown). This
suggests that the isopycnal advection of low-potential-vorticity water in
MIROC6 is more realistic than in MIROC5.
Annual mean sea level height relative to the geoid in (a) observations,
(b) MIROC6, and (c) MIROC5. Contour interval is 20 cm.
Negative values are denoted by dashed lines. Note that loading due to
sea ice and accumulated snow on sea ice are removed from the model sea level
height and that the global mean value is eliminated.
Discussions on model climatological biases
We have evaluated the simulated climatology in MIROC6 in comparison with
MIROC5 and observations. The model climatology in MIROC6 shows certain
improvements in simulating radiation, atmospheric and oceanic circulation,
and the snow cover fractions in the Northern Hemisphere. In Fig. 19, we
display the model biases in annual mean SAT and SST (Fig. 19) because these
are typical variables that reflect errors in individual processes in the
climate system. The global mean SAT (SST) is 15.2 (18.1) ∘C in MIROC6, 14.6 (18.0) ∘C in MIROC5,
and 14.4 (18.1) ∘C in observations. The modeled global mean
SATs and SSTs are generally consistent with observations. However, since the
observed (model) value is estimated in the present-day (preindustrial)
condition, the model global mean SATs and SSTs are overestimated. Here, it
should be noted that while the spatial patterns of the SAT and SST biases in
MIROC6 resemble those in MIROC5, there are several improvements. For
example, cold SAT bias in MIROC5 extending from the Barents Sea to Eurasia
is significantly smaller in MIROC6, possibly owing to the increase in warm
water transport by the North Atlantic Current and the resultant eastward
retreat of the sea ice in the Barents Sea (Figs. 17 and 18). Warm SAT and
SST biases along the west coast of North America are smaller in MIROC6
than in MIROC5. The reason is that an increase in southeastward Ekman
transport in the eastern subarctic North Pacific due to the strengthening of
the midlatitude westerly jet (Fig. 10) and the Aleutian low tend to cancel
out the relatively warm water supply from the subtropics to the subarctic
region by the surface geostrophic current. Although it is not clear from
Fig. 19, the SAT and SST in the subtropical North Pacific around
20∘ N are warmer by 2 K in MIROC6 than in MIROC5. Also in
the Atlantic, the SAT in the western tropics is warmer in MIROC6. These
warmer surface temperatures in MIROC6 indicate a reduction of the cold SAT
and SST biases that can be alleviated by an increase in the downward OSR in
MIROC6 due to the implementation of a shallow convective parameterization
(Fig. 4) and by an increase in eastward transport of the warm pool
temperature associated with the stronger STCC in MIROC6 (Fig. 18).
Same as Fig. 4, but for annual mean SAT (a, b) and SST (c, d).
ERA-I for the SAT and the ProjD for the SST are used as
observations.
On the other hand, the warm SAT and SST biases in the Southern Ocean and the
warm SAT bias in the Middle East and the Mediterranean are worse in MIROC6 than
in MIROC5. Consequently, the RMS error in SAT is larger in MIROC6 (2.4 K)
than in MIROC5 (2.2 K). The former is essentially due to the underestimate
of mid-level cloud cover, excess downward OSR, and the resultant
underestimate of the sea ice in the Southern Ocean. Such a bias commonly
occurs in many climate models and is normally attributed to errors in
cloud radiative processes (e.g., Bodas-Salcedo et al., 2012; Williams et
al., 2013). In addition, poor representations of mixed layer depths and open-ocean deep convection due to the lack of mesoscale processes in the
Antarctic Circumpolar Current are causes of the warm bias (Olbers et al., 2004; Downes and Hogg, 2013). The latter warm bias, seen in the Middle East
around the Mediterranean, can be explained by a tendency to underestimate
the radiative forcing of aerosol–radiation interactions due to an underestimate
of dust emissions from the Sahara in MIROC6 (not shown).
Internal climate variationsMadden–Julian oscillation and East Asian monsoon
In this section, we will evaluate the reproducibility of internal climate
variations in MIROC6 in comparison with MIROC5 and observations, beginning
with an examination of the equatorial waves in the atmosphere. Zonal
wavenumber–frequency power spectra normalized by background spectra for the
symmetric and antisymmetric components of OLR are calculated following
Wheeler and Kiladis (1999) and are shown in Fig. 20. The daily mean OLR data
derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) of the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites (Liebmann
and Smith, 1996; the data are available at
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.interp_OLR.html, last access: 8 April 2019) are used for observational references. The signals corresponding
to the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), equatorial Kelvin (EK), equatorial
Rossby (ER), eastward inertia–gravity (n=1 EIG), and westward
inertia–gravity (WIG) waves in the symmetric component and mixed
Rossby–gravity (MRG) and eastward inertia–gravity (n=0 EIG) waves in the
antisymmetric component stand out from the background spectra in
observations. MIROC5 qualitatively reproduces these spectral maxima of the
symmetric MJO, EK, and ER qualitatively, while the amplitudes of the MJO and
the EK are underestimated. These underestimates are partially mitigated in
MIROC6. The power summed over the eastward wavenumbers 1–3 and periods of
30–60 d corresponding to the MJO is 20 % larger in MIROC6 than in
MIROC5. Furthermore, some additional analyses indicate that many aspects of
the MJO, including its eastward propagation over the western tropical
Pacific, are improved in MIROC6. Those improvements are primarily associated
with the implementation of the shallow convective scheme that moistens the
lower troposphere. The results of these additional analyses, along with some
sensitivity experiments, are described in a separate paper (Hirota et al., 2018). The EIG and WIG in the symmetric component and the MRG and the EIG in
the antisymmetric component are missing in both MIROC6 and MIROC5.
Zonal wavenumber–frequency power spectra of the (a–c) symmetric
and (d–f) antisymmetric component of OLR divided by background power in
(a, d) observations (NOAA OLR), (b, e) MIROC6, and
(c, f) MIROC5. Dispersion
curves of equatorial waves for the three equivalent depths of 12, 25, and 50 m
are indicated by black lines. Signals corresponding to the westward and
eastward inertia–gravity (WIG and EIG) waves, the equatorial Rossby (ER)
waves, equatorial Kelvin waves, the mixed Rossby–gravity waves (MRG), and
Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) are labeled in (a). The unit of the vertical
axes is cycles per day (cpd).
Figure 21 shows the June–August (JJA) climatology of precipitation and
circulation in East Asia. As shown in observations (ERA-I; Fig. 21a),
the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is characterized by the monsoon low
over the warmer Eurasian continent and the subtropical high over the colder
Pacific Ocean (e.g., Ninomiya and Akiyama, 1992). The southwesterly between
these pressure systems transports moist air to the midlatitudes, forming a
rainband called Baiu in Japanese. The general circulation pattern of the EASM
and the rainband are well simulated in both MIROC6 and MIROC5. It should be
noted that one of major deficiencies in MIROC5, the underestimate of the
precipitation around the Philippines, has been largely alleviated in MIROC6.
This improvement is, again, associated with the moistening of the lower
troposphere by shallow convective processes. Interannual EASM variabilities
are examined using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of
vorticity at the 850 hPa pressure level over [100–150∘ E, 0–60∘ N] following Kosaka and Nakamura (2010). The regressions of precipitation and 850hPa vorticity with
respect to the time series of the first mode (EOF1) are shown in Fig. 21. In observations, precipitation and vorticity anomalies
show a tripolar pattern with centers located around the Philippines, Japan,
and the Sea of Okhotsk (Hirota and Takahashi, 2012). The anomalies around
the Philippines and Japan correspond to the so-called Pacific–Japan pattern
(Nitta et al., 1987). The southwest–northeast orientation of the wave-like
anomalies is better simulated in MIROC6 than in MIROC5.
(a–c) Summertime (JJA) climatology of precipitation (colors; mm d-1)
and the 850 hPa horizontal wind (vector; m s-1) for (a) observations (ERA-I),
(b) MIROC6, and (c) MIROC5. (d–f) Anomalies of
summertime precipitation (shading; mm d-1) and the 850 hPa vorticity
(contour; 10-6 s-1) regressed to the time series of EOF1 of the
850 hPa vorticity over [100–150∘ E, 0–60∘ N]
for (d) observations, (e) MIROC6, and (f) MIROC5.
Figure 22 shows the wintertime (December–February) climatology of
circulation and the STA in East Asia. The East Asian winter monsoon
(EAWM) is characterized by a northwesterly between the Siberian high and the
Aleutian low in observations (ERA-I; e.g., Zhang et al., 1997). The monsoon
northwesterly advects cold air to East Asia, enhancing the meridional
temperature gradients and strengthening the subtropical jet around Japan.
The jet's strength influences synoptic wave activities in the storm track.
MIROC5 captures the circulation pattern but significantly underestimates
the STA. The STA in MIROC6 is better simulated than in MIROC5, but it is
still smaller than in observations. Interannual variability of the EAWM is
also better represented in MIROC6 than in MIROC5. The dominant variability
of the monsoon northwesterly is extracted as the EOF1 of the meridional wind
at the 850 hPa pressure level over the region [30–60∘ N, 120–150∘ E]. In observations, the regressions with respect to the time series of the EOF1 show a stronger northwesterly accompanied by a suppressed STA, which is consistent with
previous studies (Fig. 22d; e.g., Nakamura, 1992). This relationship between
the circulation and the STA can be found in MIROC6 but not in MIROC5 (Fig. 22e, f). The explained variance of the EOF1 is 46.0 % in observations,
37.1 % in MIROC5, and 47.1 % in MIROC6, suggesting that the amplitude
of this variability in MIROC6 is consistent with observations.
(a–c) Wintertime (DJF) climatology of STA (colors; K m s-1),
the 300 hPa zonal wind (contour; m s-1), and the 300 hPa horizontal
wind (vector; m s-1) for (a) observations (ERA-I),
(b) MIROC6, and (c) MIROC5. (d–f) As in (a–c),
but for anomalies regressed onto the time series
of the EOF1 of the 850 hPa meridional wind over [120–150∘ E,
30–60∘ N].
Stratospheric circulation
A few of the major changes in the model setting from MIROC5 to MIROC6 are
higher vertical resolution and higher model-top altitude in MIROC6, namely the
representation of the stratospheric circulation. Here, we examine
the representation of the quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) in MIROC6. Figure 23 shows the time–height cross sections of the monthly mean, zonal-mean
zonal wind over the Equator for observations (ERA-I) and MIROC6. In this
figure, an obvious QBO with a mean period of approximately 22 months can be
seen in MIROC6. The mean period is slightly shorter than that of
∼28 months in observations, and the simulated QBO period
varies slightly from cycle to cycle. The maximum speed of the easterly at
the 20 hPa pressure level is approximately -25 m s-1 in MIROC6 and that
of the westerly is 15 m s-1. On the other hand, the observed maximum
wind speeds are -35 m s-1 for the easterly and 20 m s-1 for the westerly. The simulated QBO has a somewhat weaker amplitude in MIROC6 than
observations but the same east–west phase asymmetry. The QBO in MIROC6
shifts upward compared with that in observations, and the simulated
amplitude is larger above the 5 hPa pressure level and smaller in the lower
stratosphere. The simulated downward propagation of the westerly shear zones
of zonal wind (∂u‾∂z>0, where z is the altitude) is faster than the downward
propagation of easterly shear zones (∂u‾∂z)<0, which agrees with
observations. The QBOs in MIROC6 are qualitatively similar to that
represented in the MIROC ESM, which is an Earth system model with a similar
vertical resolution that participated in CMIP5 (Watanabe et al., 2011).
Note that nothing resembling a realistic QBO was simulated in the previous
low-top version of MIROC5, which only has a few vertical layers in the
stratosphere.
Time–height cross section of the monthly mean, zonal-mean zonal
wind over the Equator for (a) observations (ERA-I) and (b) MIROC6.
The contour intervals are 5 m s-1. Dashed lines correspond to the altitude
of the 70 hPa pressure level. Red and blue correspond to
westerlies and easterlies, respectively.
Recently, Yoo and Son (2016) found that the observed MJO amplitude in the
boreal winter is stronger than normal during the QBO easterly phase at the
50 hPa pressure level. They also showed that the QBO exerted greater
influence on the MJO than did ENSO. Marshall et al. (2016) pointed out the
improvement in forecast skill during the easterly phase of the QBO and
indicated that the QBO could be a potential source of the MJO
predictability. MIROC6 successfully simulates both the MJO and QBO in a way
consistent with observations, as mentioned above, but correlations between
the QBO and MJO are insignificant. One possible reason is the smaller amplitude
of the simulated QBO in the lowermost stratosphere. The QBO contribution to
tropical temperature variation at the 100 hPa pressure level is
∼0.1 K in MIROC6, which is much smaller than the observed
value of ∼0.5 K (Randel et al., 2000). The simulated QBO has
little effect on static stability and vertical wind shear in the tropical
upper troposphere.
MIROC6 can also simulate sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), which is a
typical intra-seasonal variability of the midlatitude stratosphere in the
Northern Hemisphere. The standard deviation of monthly and zonal-mean zonal wind
(colors) superimposed on a monthly climatology of zonal-mean zonal wind (black
contours) in February is shown in Fig. 24a–c. There are two maxima of
the standard deviations over the equatorial stratosphere and the middle- to high-latitude upper stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere in observations (Fig. 24a), which correspond to QBO and polar vortex variability. This feature is
well captured in MIROC6 (Fig. 24b), while there are too-small variations in
MIROC5 where the stratosphere cannot be well resolved (Fig. 24c). The better
representation of polar vortex variability in MIROC6 is closely
associated with that of the SSW. As shown in Fig. 24,
abrupt and short-lived warming events associated with SSW are detected in
MIROC6, which are reproduced comparably to observations in terms of
magnitude but are not detected in MIROC5. This is consistent with previous
modeling studies that reported the importance of the well-resolved
stratosphere for better simulation of stratospheric variability (e.g.,
Cagnazzo and Manzini, 2009; Charlton-Perez et al., 2013; Osprey et al., 2013). In December–January, however, MIROC6 still underestimates the
frequency of SSW events, which is a common bias in other high-top climate
models (e.g., Inatsu et al., 2007; Charlton-Perez et al., 2013; Osprey et
al., 2013). It is conjectured that the less frequent SSW in
December–January could be attributed to less frequent stationary wave
breaking due to an overestimate of the climatological zonal wind speed of the
polar night jet in MIROC6 (Fig. 24d and e).
Standard deviation of monthly and zonal-mean zonal wind (colors;
unit is m s-1) superimposed on monthly climatology of zonal-mean zonal
wind (black contours; unit is m s-1) in (a–c) February and
(d–f) January for observations (ERA-I in 1979–2014; a, d, g),
MIROC6 (b, e, h),
and MIROC5 (c, f, i) during a 60-year period. In (g–i), the daily mean
temperatures at the 10 hPa pressure level on the North Pole are plotted.
The inclusion of a well-resolved stratosphere in MIROC6 is also considered
to be important for improvement in the representation of
stratosphere–troposphere coupling. In order to evaluate this, we examine the
time development of the northern annular modes (NAMs) associated with
strongly weakened polar vortex events in the stratosphere. The NAM indices
are defined by the first EOF mode of the zonal mean year-round daily
geopotential height anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere and are computed
separately at each pressure level (Baldwin and Thompson, 2009). The height
anomalies are first filtered by a 10 d low-pass filter to remove transient
eddies. Figure 25 shows the composite of the time development of the NAM index
for weak polar vortex events. The events are determined by the dates on
which the 10 hPa NAM index exceeded -3.0 standard deviations (Baldwin and
Dunkerton, 2001). Note that the NAM index is multiplied by the square root
of the eigenvalue in each level before the composite, that is, the composite
having the geopotential height dimension. The weak polar vortex signal in
the stratosphere propagates downward to the surface and persists for
approximately 60 d in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. These
observational features are well represented in MIROC6 (Fig. 25a, b). Although
MIROC5 has also captured downward-propagating signals, its magnitude is
approximately half in the stratosphere, and its persistency is weak in the
lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. Therefore, these results strongly
indicate that the inclusion of a well-resolved stratosphere in a model is
important for representing not only stratospheric variability, but also
stratosphere–troposphere coupling.
Composites of the time development of the zonal mean NAM index for
stratospheric weak polar vortex events in (a) observations (ERA-I),
(b) MIROC6, and (c) MIROC5. The indices have dimensions of
geopotential height
(m), and red denotes negative values. The color interval (contours) is
50 m (400 m). The number of events included in the composite is indicated
above each panel.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole mode
Among the various internal climate variabilities on interannual timescales,
ENSO is of great importance because it can influence climate not only in
tropics, but also at the middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres through
atmospheric teleconnections associated with wave propagations (e.g., Hoskins
and Karoly, 1981; Alexander et al., 2002). Here, we describe the representation
of ENSO and related teleconnection patterns. Figure 26 shows anomalies of
SST, precipitation, the 500 hPa pressure height, and the equatorial ocean
temperature regressed onto the Niño3 index, which is defined as the area
average of the SST at [5∘ S–5∘ N, 150–90∘ W]. ProjD and ERA-I in 1980–2009 are used as observations.
Although the maximum of the SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific is shifted
more westward than in observations, the ENSO-related SST anomalies simulated
in both MIROC6 and MIROC5 are globally consistent with observations
(Fig. 26a–c). Simulated positive precipitation anomalies in MIROC6 still
overextend to the western Pacific (Fig. 26d–f). Meanwhile, dry anomalies
over the maritime continent, the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, and the
SPCZ are better simulated in MIROC6 than in MIROC5. ENSO teleconnection
patterns in Z500 (Fig. 26g–i) are also realistically simulated as seen in,
for example, the Pacific–North American pattern (Wallace and Gutzler, 1981).
Equatorial subsurface ocean temperature anomalies in MIROC6 are more
confined within the thermocline than in MIROC5 (Fig. 26j–l), and the
signals in MIROC6 are closer to observations. However, the subsurface
signals in MIROC6 reside deeper than in observations. This is due to the
difference in the climatological structure of the equatorial thermocline,
which is attributed to the overestimate of the trade winds over the
equatorial Pacific, as mentioned in Sect. 3.1.2.
Anomalies of SST (K), precipitation (mm d-1), the 500 hPa
pressure height (m), and the equatorial ocean temperature averaged over
5∘ S–5∘ N (K), which are regressed onto the Niño3
index. Monthly anomalies with respect to monthly climatology are used here.
From the left to the right, the anomalies in observations (ProjD and ERA-I),
MIROC6, and MIROC5 are aligned. Contours (j–l) denote
annual mean climatological temperature with the 20 ∘C isotherms
thickened, and the contour interval is 2 ∘C.
In addition to ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode is recognized as a
prominent interannual variability (Saji et al., 1999; Webster et al., 1999).
Figure 27 shows anomalies of SST, 10 m wind, and precipitation regressed
onto the autumn (September–November) dipole mode index (DMI), which is
defined as the zonal difference of the anomalous SST averaged over
[10∘ S–10∘ N, 50–70∘ E] and
that averaged over [10∘ S–10∘ N, 90–110∘ E]. ProjD and ERA-I in 1980–2009 are used as
observations. The observed positive IOD phase is characterized by a
basin-wide zonal mode with positive (negative) SST anomalies in the western
(eastern) Indian Ocean, and precipitation is increased (decreased) over the
positive (negative) SST anomalies (Fig. 27a, d). The dipole SST pattern is
better simulated in MIROC6 than in MIROC5 in which the eastern SST anomalies
are located more southward than in observations (Fig. 27a–c).
Correspondingly, a meridional dipole pattern in the precipitation of MIROC5
is alleviated, and MIROC6 shows a zonal dipole precipitation pattern, as in
observations (Fig. 27d–f). Seasonal IOD phase locking to boreal autumn,
which is assessed based on the RMS amplitude of the DMI, is also better
simulated in MIROC6 than in MIROC5 (not shown). Seasonal shoaling of the
eastern equatorial thermocline in the Indian Ocean is realistically
simulated in MIROC6 during boreal summer to autumn. The shallower
thermocline leads to the stronger thermocline feedback, which is evaluated based
on the SST anomalies regressed onto the 20 ∘C isotherm depth
anomalies averaged over the eastern part of the IOD region. As displayed at
the top of Fig. 27a–c, the thermocline feedback in MIROC6
is comparable to observations. This larger thermocline feedback in MIROC6
possibly leads to the abovementioned improvements in the IOD pattern. Note
that the simulated surface wind anomalies are more realistic in MIROC6 than
in MIROC5, although the magnitude of SST anomalies is overestimated in
MIROC6. The overestimate of the SST anomalies may have arisen from an
excessive response of the equatorial and coastal Ekman upwelling and down-welling
to the wind changes, which are favorable in coarse-resolution ocean models.
Same as Fig. 26, but for anomalies of SST (colors), 10 m wind
vectors (a, b, c), and precipitation (d, e, f) regressed onto the
autumn DMI. The values of the regression slope between anomalies of the 20 ∘C
isotherm depth and the SST over the eastern IOD region, which
indicates the thermocline feedback, are displayed on the top of (a, b, c).
Decadal-scale variations in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean
On longer than interannual timescales, the PDO (Mantua et al., 1997) or the
Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO; Power et al., 1999) is known to be a
dominant climate mode that is detected in the SST and the SLP over the North
Pacific. To examine simulated PDO patterns, monthly SST and wintertime
(December–February) SLP anomalies are regressed onto the PDO index, defined
as the first EOF mode of the North Pacific SST to the north of 20∘ N,
and shown in Fig. 28. In order to detect decadal-scale variation,
the COBE-SST2–SLP2 data (Hirahara et al., 2014) from 1900 to 2013 are used
as observations. Negative SST anomalies in the western and central North
Pacific and positive SST anomalies in the eastern North Pacific are found in
observations. These signals are also represented in both MIROC6 and
MIROC5. The regression of SLP anomalies corresponding to the deepening of
the Aleutian low are well simulated in the models over the subarctic North
Pacific, and it can be seen that the amplitudes of the SLP anomalies are
larger in MIROC6 than in MIROC5, which is closer to the observation. In the
tropical Pacific, positive SST anomalies, which are among the more important
driving processes of the PDO (e.g., Alexander et al., 2002), are seen in both
the models and the observations. In MIROC5, the 5-year running means of the
wintertime (November–March) North Pacific Index (NPI), defined as the SLP
averaged over [30–65∘ N, 160∘ E–140∘ W], are less sensitive to the Niño3 index (correlation
coefficient r=-0.37) than to the Niño4 index (r=-0.64). Note that the
Niño4 index is defined as the area average of the SST over [5∘ S–5∘ N, 160∘ E–150∘ W]. The distorted
response of the extratropical atmosphere to the tropical SST variations
works to unsuitably modify the extratropical ocean and plays a major role in
limiting the decadal predictability of the PDO index in MIROC5 (Mochizuki et
al., 2014). In contrast, those in MIROC6 are well correlated with the Niño3
index (r=-0.61) in addition to the Niño4 index (r=-0.62). Overestimates
of the tropical signals of MIROC5 in the western tropical Pacific are also
alleviated in MIROC6. The abovementioned PDO improvement and the linkage
between the tropics and the midlatitude North Pacific imply potential for
improved skills in initialized decadal climate predictions.
Same as Fig. 26, but for anomalies of monthly SST and wintertime
SLP regressed onto the PDO index (see the text). COBE-SST2–SLP2 data in
1900–2013 are used as observations.
In the Atlantic Ocean, there is another decadal-scale variability, which is
called the AMO (Schlesinger and Ramankutty, 1994). Figure 29 shows anomalies
of SST and SLP regressed onto the AMO index, which is defined as the area
average of the SST anomalies in the North Atlantic over [0–60∘ N, 0–80∘ W] with the global mean SST
anomalies subtracted (Trenberth and Shea, 2006). As in the PDO, the
centennial COBE-SST2–SLP2 data in 1900–2013 are used as
observations. The observed AMO spatial pattern in its positive phase is
characterized by positive SST anomalies in the off-Equator and the subarctic
North Atlantic and by negative or weakly positive SST anomalies in the
western subtropical North Atlantic (Fig. 29a). Corresponding to negative
(positive) SLP anomalies over the subtropical (subarctic) North Atlantic,
the midlatitude westerly jet is weaker in a positive AMO phase than in
normal years. These spatial patterns in the SST and SLP are simulated in
both MIROC6 and MIROC5. It is especially noteworthy that the positive SST
anomalies at low latitudes have larger amplitudes in MIROC6 than in MIROC5,
and they extend to the South Atlantic as in observations (Fig. 29b, c). On
the other hand, the positive SST anomalies in the subarctic region are
underestimated in MIROC6, which may be due to the smaller RMS amplitudes of
NADW transport in MIROC6 (see Sect. 3.1).
Same as Fig. 26, but for anomalies of SST (colors) and SLP
(contours; 0.2 hPa) regressed onto the AMO index (see the text). Negative
values are denoted by dashed contours.
Climate sensitivity
Following the regression method by Gregory et al. (2004) and Gregory and
Webb (2008), we conducted abrupt CO2 quadrupling experiments with
MIROC6 (Tatebe and Watanabe, 2018b) and MIROC5 in order to evaluate effective climate sensitivity (ECS),
radiative forcing, and climate feedback. The CO2 quadrupling
experiments were initiated from the preindustrial control runs. Data from
the first 150 years after the CO2 increase were used for the analysis.
ECS, 2×CO2 radiative forcing, and climate feedback for
MIROC6 are estimated to be 2.6 K, 3.7 W m-2, and -1.4 W m-2 K-1, respectively (Fig. 30a and Table 2). The ECS, radiative forcing,
and climate feedback in MIROC6 are lower, higher, and negatively larger than
those of the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble means, although these estimates for
MIROC6 are within the ensemble spread of the multi-models (Andrews et al., 2012). The ECS of MIROC6 is almost the same as MIROC5 because the decrease
in radiative forcing is counterbalanced by the positive increase in climate
feedback, although the change in climate feedback is small and not
statistically significant. The decrease in radiative forcing of MIROC6
relative to MIROC5 is evident in the longwave and shortwave cloud components
(LCRE and SCRE in Fig. 30b and Table 3). On the other hand, the clear-sky
shortwave component (SWclr) increases in MIROC6 relative to MIROC5, which
partially cancels the differences between the two models. The positive
increase in climate feedback is pronounced in the SCRE, which is partially
offset by the decrease in the clear-sky longwave (LWclr) and SWclr (Fig. 30c
and Table 3).
Effective climate sensitivity (ECS), radiative forcing of CO2
doubling, and climate feedback for MIROC6 and MIROC5. The MIROC6 result
marked with an asterisk (*) is different from MIROC5 at the 5 % level.
Radiative forcing of CO2 doubling and climate feedback for
MIROC6 and MIROC5, evaluated with different components of TOA radiation as
longwave clear sky (LWclr), shortwave clear sky (SWclr), longwave cloud
radiative effect (LCRE), and shortwave cloud radiative effect (SCRE). The
MIROC6 results marked with an asterisk (*) are different from MIROC5 at the 5 % level.
ModelRadiative forcing (W m-2) Climate feedback (W m-2 K-1) LWclrSWclrLCRESCRELWclrSWclrLCRESCREMIROC64.240.06-1.21*0.76*-1.94*0.78*-0.05-0.24*MIROC54.23-0.13-1.041.03-1.860.83-0.04-0.43
(a) Global mean net radiative imbalance at the TOA plotted against
the global mean SAT increase. Data from the first 150 years after the abrupt
CO2 quadrupling are used. (b)2×CO2 radiative
forcing estimated by regressing four components of TOA radiation against the
global mean SAT, following Gregory and Webb (2008). (c) Same as (b)
but for climate feedback. In (b, c) LWclr (SWclr) and LCRE (SCRE) denote a
clear-sky longwave (shortwave) component and a longwave (shortwave) cloud
component, respectively. The arrows in (b) and (c) indicate that the results
of MIROC6 are different from MIROC5 at the 5 % level.
We now focus on the SCRE of the radiative forcing and climate feedback,
which show the largest differences between the two models, and compare the
geographical distribution (Fig. 31). The distribution is calculated by
regressing the changes in SCRE caused by the CO2 increase at each
latitude–longitude grid box against the change in the global mean SAT. There
is a large difference in the geographical distribution between MIROC6 and
MIROC5, with the former showing a more pronounced zonal contrast in the
tropical Pacific than the latter. The changes in the global mean from MIROC5
to MIROC6 (Fig. 30b, c) are correlated with changes in the western
tropical Pacific, showing more negative radiative forcing and more positive
climate feedback, which are partially offset by the changes in the central
tropical Pacific with opposite signs. The radiative forcing and climate
feedback tend to show similar geographical patterns with opposite signs in
each model.
Shortwave cloud component of (a, c)2×CO2 radiative forcing
and (b, d) climate feedback in MIROC6 (a, b) and
MIROC5 (c, d).
Summary and discussion
The sixth version of a climate model, MIROC6, was developed by a Japanese
climate modeling community aiming to contribute to CMIP6 through
a deeper understanding of a wide range of climate science issues and
seasonal to decadal climate predictions and future climate projections. The
model configurations and basic performance in the preindustrial control
simulation have been described and evaluated in the present paper.
Major changes from MIROC5, which was our official model for CMIP5, to
MIROC6 are mainly done in the atmospheric component. These include
the implementation of a parameterization of shallow convective processes, the
higher model top, and vertical resolution in the stratosphere. The ocean and
land surface components have been also updated in terms of the horizontal
grid coordinate system and higher vertical resolution in the former, as well as
parameterizations for sub-grid-scale snow distribution and wetlands due to
snowmelt water in the latter. Overall, the model climatology and
internal climate variability of MIROC6, which are assessed in comparison
with observations, are better simulated than in MIROC5.
An overestimate of low-level cloud amounts at low latitudes, which can be
partly attributed to insufficient representation of shallow convective
processes, is significantly alleviated in MIROC6. The free atmosphere
becomes wetter and the precipitation over the western tropical Pacific
becomes larger in MIROC6 than in MIROC5, primarily due to vertical mixing of
the humid air in the planetary boundary layer with the dry air in the free
troposphere. Shallow convection also contributes to better propagation
characteristics of intra-seasonal variability associated with MJO in MIROC6,
as well as East Asian summer monsoon variability on interannual timescales.
In addition, QBO, which is absent in MIROC5, appears in MIROC6 because of
its better stratospheric resolution and non-orographic gravity wave drag
parameterization.
Climatic mean and internal climate variability in the midlatitudes are also
improved in MIROC6. Together with enhanced activity of sub-weekly
disturbances, the tropospheric westerly jets in MIROC6 are shifted more
poleward and are stronger than in MIROC5, especially in the Northern
Hemisphere. Overestimates in zonal wind speed of the polar night jet are
reduced in MIROC6. These advanced representations lead to tighter
interactions between the troposphere and the stratosphere in MIROC6. SSW
events, in the form of polar vortex destruction induced by upward momentum
transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere (e.g., Matsuno, 1971), are
well captured in MIROC6. On interannual timescales, the improvement of the
westerly jet results in better representations of the spatial wind pattern
of the wintertime East Asian monsoon. Associated with changes in
large-scale atmospheric circulation, the western boundary currents in the
oceans, the Kuroshio–Oyashio current system, the Gulf Stream, and their
extensions are better simulated in MIROC6. The increase in warm water
transport from the subtropical North Atlantic to the Barents Sea seems to
melt the sea ice in the Barents Sea and to alleviate the overestimate of
the wintertime sea ice area that is seen in that region in MIROC5. Another
improvement in MIROC6 is found in the climatological snow cover fractions in
the early winter over the Northern Hemisphere continents. In the Southern
Hemisphere, however, the underestimate of mid-level clouds and the
corresponding warm SAT bias, the underestimate of sea ice area, and the
overestimate of incoming shortwave radiation in the Southern Ocean, all of
which are attributed to errors in cloud radiative and planetary boundary
layer processes (e.g., Bodas-Salcedo et al., 2012; Williams et al., 2013),
remain the same as in MIROC5.
Qualitatively, the linkage representations between the tropics and the
midlatitudes associated with ENSO in MIROC6 are mostly the same as in
MIROC5. Meanwhile, oceanic subsurface signals, which partly control ENSO
characteristics, are more confined along the equatorial thermocline in
MIROC6, which is consistent with observations. Regarding the PDO, tropical
influence on the midlatitudes is more dominant in MIROC6 than in MIROC5,
suggesting improvements in decadal-scale atmospheric teleconnections in
MIROC6.
The above descriptions are mainly on the Pacific internal climate
variabilities. Regarding the Indian Ocean, the zonal dipole structures in
the SST and precipitation associated with the interannual variability, known
as the IOD, are better simulated in MIROC6 than in MIROC5, which has a bias
of a false meridional precipitation pattern. In the Atlantic, the
multi-decadal variability, known as the AMO, is represented in both the
models as roughly consistent with observations, but their reproducibility shows
both drawbacks and advantages. Signals associated with AMO in the subarctic
(tropical) region are underestimated in MIROC6 (MIROC5).
As a metric for climate change induced by atmospheric CO2 increase, ECS
is also estimated. Although the model configurations and performances are
different between the models, the ECS is almost the same (2.6 K). However,
looking at the geographical distributions of radiative forcing and climate
feedback, the amplitudes of shortwave cloud components are much larger in
MIROC6 than in MIROC5. Since the larger negative (positive) radiative
forcing and positive (negative) climate feedback in the western (central)
tropical Pacific cancel each other, global mean quantities in MIROC6 remain almost
the same as in MIROC5. As a topic of future study, estimating
radiative forcing and climate feedback with experiments like those in the Atmospheric Model
Intercomparison Project in order to check the robustness of the
present study would be desirable. Elucidating the impact of different
geographical patterns of radiative forcing and climate feedback on the
projected future climates would also be useful.
After conducting the preindustrial control simulation and evaluating the
model reproducibility of the mean climate and the internal climate
variability, ensemble historical simulations that were initiated from the
preindustrial simulations were executed using the historical forcing data
recommended by the CMIP6 protocol (Tatebe and Watanabe, 2018c). Figure 32 shows a time series of the
global mean SAT anomalies with respect to the 1961–1990 mean. There are 30
(5) ensemble members in the MIROC6 (MIROC5) historical simulations. Note
that the MIROC5 historical simulations are executed using the forcing
datasets of the CMIP5 protocol. As shown in Fig. 32, the simulated SAT
variations in both MIROC6 and MIROC5 follow observations (HadCRUTv4.4.0;
Morice et al., 2012; the data are available at
https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/, last access: 5 June 2019) on a centennial timescale.
The temperature increases from the nineteenth century to the early twenty-first
century are about 0.72 K in MIROC6, 0.85 K in MIROC5, and 0.82 K in
observations. Focusing on the period from the 1940s to the
1960s, the SAT variations seem to be better simulated in MIROC6 than in
MIROC5, which can be due to both an update of the forcing datasets and
the larger ensemble number in MIROC6. On the other hand, the warming trend
during the first half of the twentieth century in the models is about half
as large as in observations. Whether it can be attributed to internal
climate variability (e.g., Thompson et al., 2014; Kosaka and Xie, 2016) or
to an externally forced mode (e.g., Meehl et al., 2003; Nozawa et al., 2005)
is still being debated. The so-called recent hiatus of global warming
(Easterling and Wehner, 2009) in the first decade of the twenty-first
century is not simulated in MIROC6 or MIROC5. The observed hiatus
is considered to occur in association with a negative IPO phase as internal
climate variation (e.g., Meehl et al., 2011; Watanabe et al., 2014). As
external drivers of the hiatus, the increase in stratospheric water vapor
and the weakening of solar activity are given as possible candidates (e.g., Solomon et al., 2010; Kaufmann et al., 2011). Failure to
simulate the hiatus in the models could be attributed to uncertainties in
the historical forcing datasets or cancellation of internal climate
variations of the IPO by ensemble mean manipulation of the individual
historical simulations.
Time series of the global mean SAT anomalies for observations
(black), MIROC6 (red), and MIROC5 (blue). A 5-year running-mean filter is
applied to the anomalies with respect to the 1961–1990 mean. Colors
indicate spreads of ensemble experiments for each model (1 standard
deviation).
As summarized above, the overall reproducibility of the mean climate and the
internal variability in the latest version of our climate model, MIROC6, has
progressed, as has the historical warming trend of the climate system.
During the first trial of the preindustrial simulation conducted just after
the model configuration was frozen, however, the model reproducibility was
not as good as seen in MIROC5. As described in Sect. 2.5, we intensively
tuned the model by perturbing parameters associated with
cumulus and shallow convection and planetary boundary processes in particular. In
addition, before starting the historical simulations, we estimated and tuned
the radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud
interactions by changing the parameters of cloud microphysics in order to
ensure that the estimated radiative forcing would be closer to the
best estimate of the IPCC AR5 (IPCC, 2013). Without this parameter tuning,
the simulated warming trend after the 1960s was 70 % as large as seen in
observations. This dependence of radiative forcing and reproducibility of
the warming trend on cloud microphysics has also been reported in other
climate models (Golaz et al., 2013). A recent comparison of cloud
microphysical statistics between climate models and satellite-based
observations has pointed out that “tuned” model parameters that were
adjusted for adequate radiative forcing and realistic SAT changes do not
necessarily ensure that cloud properties and rain–snow formation will be
consistent with observations and implies the presence of error compensations
in climate models (e.g., Suzuki et al., 2013; Michibata et al., 2016). Error
compensation is also found in both global and regional aspects. As
described in Sect. 3.1, the global TOA radiation imbalance in MIROC6 is
about -1.1 W m-2, which is in the acceptable range of observations.
However, when the TOA imbalance is examined in parts, cloud radiative
components in the model contain non-negligible biases with respect to
satellite-based observations. Regarding error compensation in the oceanic
processes, the modeled northward transport of CDW, which is
within the uncertainty range of observations, is maintained by spurious open-ocean convection in the Southern Ocean that often appears in
coarse-resolution ocean models for which oceanic mesoscale eddies and coastal
bottom water formation cannot be represented (e.g., Olbers et al., 2004;
Downes and Hogg, 2013).
Several key foci remain for ongoing model development efforts. These
include process-oriented refinements of cloud microphysics and convective
systems based on constraints from satellite data and feedbacks from
cloud-resolving atmospheric models (e.g., Satoh et al., 2014), higher
resolutions for representations of regional extremes, oceanic eddies and
river floods, and parameterization of tide-induced microscale mixing of seawater. Improvement of computational efficiency, especially on massively
parallel computing systems, is among the urgent issues for long-term and
large-ensemble simulations. These improvements can contribute to a deeper
understanding of the Earth's climate, reducing uncertainties in climate
projections and predictions, and more precise evaluations of human
influences on carbon–nitrogen cycles when applied to Earth system models.
Code and data availability
Please contact the corresponding author if readers want to validate the model configurations of MIROC6 and MIROC5 and to conduct replication experiments. The source codes and required input data will be provided by the modeling community to which the author belongs. The model output from the CMIP6–CMIP5 preindustrial control and historical simulations used in the present paper is distributed through the Earth System Grid Federation and is freely accessible. Details on ESGF are given on the CMIP Panel website (https://www.wcrp-climate.org/wgcm-cmip, last access: 21 June 2017).
Summary of the updated configurations from MIROC5 to MIROC6.
MIROC5 (Watanabe et al., 2010)MIROC6 (this issue)AtmosphereCoreCCSR-NIES AGCM (Numaguti et al., 1997)Same as MIROC5ResolutionT85 (150 km), 40 levels up to 3 hPaT85 (150 km), 81 levels up to 0.004 hPaCumulusAn entrainment plume model with multipleSame as MIROC5cloud types (Chikira and Sugiyama, 2010)Shallow conv.NAA mass-flux-based single-plume model basedon Park and Bretherton (2009)AerosolSPRINTARS (Takemura et al., 2000, 2005, 2009)Same as MIROC5, but with prognostic precursorgases of organic matter and diagnostic oceanicprimary and secondary organic matterRadiationk-distribution schemeSame as MIROC5, but with a hexagonal solid column as ice(Sekiguchi and Nakajima, 2008)particle habit and extended mode radius of cloud particlesGravity wavesAn orographic gravity waveSame as MIROC5, but with a non-orographic gravityparameterization (McFarlane, 1987)wave parameterization (Hines, 1997)LandCoreMATSRIO (Takata et al., 2003)Same as MIROC5, but with parameterizations for sub-gridsnow distribution (Linston, 2004; Nitta et al., 2014)and a snow-fed wetland (Nitta et al., 2017)ResolutionT85 (150 km), 3 snow layers and 6 soilSame as MIROC5layers down to 14 m of depthOcean–sea iceCoreCOCO4.9 (Hasumi, 2006)Same as MIROC5ResolutionNominal 1.4∘ (bipolar grid system),Nominal 1∘ (tripolar grid system),49 levels down to 5500 m63 levels down to 6300 mTurbulence1.5 level turbulent closureSame as MIROC5, but modified turbulent kinetic energymodel (Noh and Kim, 1999)input and smaller background vertical diffusivity undersea ice (Komuro, 2014)
NA: not available.
Author contributions
HT managed the climate model development, performed all the experiments
presented in the paper, and wrote a large part of the paper. TO,
TN, and YK are the representatives of stand-alone sub-models of atmosphere,
land, and ocean. These three and TT, KS, MS, MC, SW, KY, KT, RO, DY, TS, and
MK constructed stand-alone sub-models and wrote the sub-model configuration
parts in Sect. 2 cooperatively, and they also performed several analyses
shown in Sect. 3. KO and FS technically supported the model development.
MM, NH, YK, TM, and TK analyzed the experimental data and contributed to the
text and figures in Sect. 3.2. MA prepared all the forcing data used in
the climate model experiments. MM and MK supervised the model development
and provided comments on the paper. All authors continuously discussed
the model development and the results together.
Competing interests
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgements
Model simulations were performed on the Earth Simulator at JAMSTEC and NEC SX-ACE at NIES. The authors are much indebted to Teruyuki Nishimura and Hiroaki Kanai for their long-term support in areas related to model development and
server administration. The authors also wish to express thanks to our
anonymous reviewers for their suggestions and careful reading of the
paper.
Financial support
This research is supported by the “Integrated Research Program for
Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU Program)” from the Ministry of Education,
Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), Japan.
Review statement
This paper was edited by Volker Grewe and reviewed by two anonymous referees.
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